Newcastle United vs Arsenal: Carabao Cup Semifinals, Analysis & Best Bets

Wake up because we’ve got some Wednesday Soccer action across the pond in the Carabao Cup as Newcastle United hosts Arsenal in the 2nd leg of this Semifinal matchup. Our hosts are leading on aggregate 2-0 and can likely sit back and cruise into the final, but could the Gunners stun them on the road?

The first leg of this contest happened about a month ago at the Emirates. Despite controlling nearly 70% of the possession and outshooting the Magpies 23-7, Arsenal fell at home 2-0. Alexander Isak netted one in the 37th minute, and Anthony Gordon added the 2nd in the 51st. The Gunners clearly went on the attack, totaling 23 attempts but just 3 on target, as well as gaining 11 corners and only conceding one. However, Newcastle still remained victorious.

Can they defend their 2-0 lead at home? Or will Arsenal come for blood?

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Newcastle United vs Arsenal: Carabao Cup Semifinals

Matchup Information – Newcastle vs Arsenal

• Venue & Location: St. James Park (Newcastle-upon-Tyne, England)
• Date: Wednesday, February 5th, 2024
• Kick Off: 3:00am Eastern
• Broadcast: Paramount Plus

Betting Odds

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Money Line

• Newcastle +315
• Draw +298
• Arsenal -119

Draw No Bet

• Newcastle +195
• Arsenal -245

Total

• Over 2.5 (-140)
• Under 2.5 (+118)

Newcastle Sitting Pretty with Two Goal Lead

Alright, the hosts already beat Arsenal, but that was a month ago. Newcastle has played five matches since then, and quite frankly, they are trying to forget a couple. After beating the Gunners, Newcastle won their next two at home in all competitions, beating Wolverhampton and Bromley. However their next home outing they were routed by AFC Bournemouth, losing 4-1 and are coming off another home loss to Fulham, 2-1.

The Magpies are just 6th on the EPL table, but they will still give their all for a spot in the Carabao Cup Final. Newcastle is 4-0 in their L4 against top competition (Arsenal, Tottenham, Man United & Aston Villa), but it will be tough to stop Arsenal, even with the home field advantage.

Arsenal has won four straight matches in all competitions, and absolutely destroyed Manchester City on Sunday. They don’t lose all that often, and their last road loss came against Inter Milan back in early November. I am assuming the Gunners roll out their studs since they are already down 2-0, and their next match is 10 days away. That gives them plenty of time to rest their legs after pulling off this win today.

Newcastle United vs Arsenal Best Bets

Newcastle vs Arsenal Prediction: Arsenal Wins 1-0 (+800)

Best Bet: Arsenal ML (-117) BetOnline

Before we get into it, let me make clear this is a 90 minute bet. All we need is for Arsenal to lead this game at the end of 90 minutes. If Arsenal wins 1-0, we win our bet, but Newcastle will advance. If Arsenal wins by two, we win our bet, but the teams will play extra time followed by a penalty shootout if still tied to determine who advances.

We don’t care about who moves on, we only care about Arsenal winning in 90 minutes.

Newcastle is going to be incredibly conservative, just like they were after gaining a two goal lead in London. Arsenal will need to bring as much offensive firepower as they can rally into this match, because again, they need to win by two JUST to force extra time. It’s a tall task on the road, but I see them being able to at least win the match. As my prediction states, I only think they get one of the two goals needed to force extra time. Newcastle’s backline is prepared for defending their home field, and they know they will endure an offensive onslaught from the Gunners.

However, I do think Newcastle’s backline holds enough for them to advance, but not enough for them to win this match. Give me the Gunners to win the match in 90 minutes but still go home disappointed.

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