Arsenal vs Paris Saint-Germain: UEFA Champions League Semifinal Best Bets

The UEFA Champions League returns for the first legs of the semifinal matchups this week! We are down to our final four teams, each from a different home country, fighting for the chance to be UCL Champions. Today in London, Arsenal is hosting Paris Saint-Germain to kick things off.

We actually already saw these two squads face off in the earlier stages of the competition. Back during the league phase of the UCL, Arsenal hosted PSG on October 1st in London. It was each team’s second match of the tournament, with Gunners coming off an away draw, while the French side won their first at home. However, they did not show up on the road against their English hosts.

Arsenal scored two goals in the first half from Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz and never looked back, eventually winning 2-0 in shutout fashion. Now, PSG possessed the ball nearly 65% of the time, and outshot the hosts 10-6 overall and 5-1 on corner kicks. However, Arsenal put 5 of their 6 shots on frame, while the visitors only mustered up two on goal. Will things be different this time around in London in the UCL Semis?

Arsenal vs PSG: UEFA Champions League Semifinals

Matchup Information – Arsenal vs PSG

• Venue & Location: Emirates Stadium (London , England)
• Date: Tuesday, April 29th, 2025
• Kick Off: 3:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: CBS/Paramount+

Betting Odds

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Money Line

• Arsenal +117
• Draw +248
• PSG +248

Draw No Bet

• Arsenal -175
• PSG +143

Total

• Over 2.5 (-112)
• Under 2.5 (-108)

Both of these teams have scored 30 goals throughout the UEFA Champions League this season. But there’s a couple of big differences. For starters, PSG has played two more matches than Arsenal, since they had to play through the knockout round into the Round of 16. So the French are scoring 2.14 goals per match, while the Gunners are averaging 2.5.

But another big difference is on the defensive side of things. PSG has allowed a goal per match, 14 in their 14 contests, whereas Arsenal’s back line has been rock solid. They have allowed just seven goals in their 12 matches so far in this competition, including just two at home, in a second leg match where they started with a six goal aggregate lead. The point is, the Gunners’ defense is insanely good at home and I think that shows today.

Arsenal vs Paris Saint-Germain Best Bets

Arsenal vs PSG Prediction: Arsenal Wins 1-0 (+825)

Best Bet: Under 2.5 (-108) BetOnline

Back the under with me this afternoon. Like I said, Arsenal has given up just seven goals in this tournament, and have allowed more than one in a match only once (that meaningless second leg against PSV). This team is incredibly stacked all over the field, they are finally back to pretty much full strength, and they are in very good form.

Although they drew with Crystal Palace this past week at home, the Gunners were clearly looking ahead to this contest. They skunked Ipswich on the road, beat Real Madrid at their place and in the Emirates, and today I see them taking down a PSG team whose luck has run out.

I do endorse Arsenal on the ML at (+117), as I think this is a great price for the hosts as well. Paris Saint-Germain drew with Nantes on the road last time out, and lost outright to Aston Villa in England but advanced on aggregate. I do not see this offense finding the back of the net tonight on the road, and I see them having to spend plenty of time defending the Gunners’ attack. I’ll bet the under for a unit, and as I’m typing this, I’ve talked myself into a half unit sprinkle on the hosts as well.

Give me Arsenal to win a low scoring game today, and then park the bus in Paris next week.

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