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NHL Leafs vs Lightning Picks and Odds | April 9, 2025

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It’s the nitty gritty time of the season and we have a game with implications. Division rivals Toronto Maple Leafs and the Tampa Bay Lightning will faceoff at the Amalie Arena. Tampa is just 2 points behind Toronto for the 1st spot in the Atlantic Division.

Tampa is 46-26-6 this season and 2nd in the Atlantic. They come into this game off a dominating win over the Rangers Monday night and are 6-3-1 in their last 10 games. The Lightning are an impressive 27-8-2 at home this season but are just 9-12-1 in divisional matchups.

This offense is a powerhouse with guys like Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel. Guentzel was a great add this offseason and fits right into the winning culture. Their offense ranks 2nd in goals scored and 12th in shots on goal per game. Tampa may be 12th in shots, but they’re 2nd in shooting percentage, so they make them count.

On defense, they play tough. The Lightning rank 3rd in goals allowed and 15th in shots on goal allowed per game. Special teams are key for a team, and they play well on both ends, ranking 5th best in power play and 6th best in penalty kill.

Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected in net. Vasi is 37-20-3 this season with a 2.14 GAA and a .922 save percentage. He is having a hell of a year with 37 wins and will look to help his team tie for the division lead.

Leafs will try to get back in the win column against a tough Lightning team

Leafs forward Bobby McMann takes a break away shot on Lightning goalie Jonas Johansson.

Toronto is 47-26-4 this year and sitting in the top spot of the Atlantic Division. They come into this game off a loss to the Panthers last night but are 7-2-1 in their last 10 games. The Leafs are 22-13-3 on the road this season and 13-8-1 in divisional matchups.

Like Tampa, this team is heavy on the offense led by Auston Matthews and William Nylander. The Leafs rank 8th in goals scored and 17th in shots on goal per game. Toronto also has a good shooting percentage, ranking 6th in the league.

Defensively, they struggle compared to their offense. Toronto ranks 14th in goals allowed and 25th in shots on goal allowed per game. Their special teams are much better on offense than defense. They rank 5th best on the power play, but 16th on the penalty kill.

We are expected to see Anthony Stolarz in net. He is 18-8-3 this season with a 2.26 GAA and a .922 save percentage. This will be the 1st time this season Stolarz sees the Lightning. Let’s check out the odds and get into the picks.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Odds and Game Information

Leafs vs Lightning Betting Odds

Puck Line

Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 (-165)
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (+140)

Moneyline

Toronto Maple Leafs +155
Tampa Bay Lightning -185

Totals

Over 5.5 (-135)
Under 5.5 (+115)

Odds courtesy of BetOnline – Get 50% up to $1000 on your first deposit

Leafs vs Lightning Game Information

Venue: Amalie Arena, Tampa Bay, FL
Date: Wednesday April 9, 2025
Puck Drop: 7pm EST
TV: FDSSUN

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction and Picks

Tampa Bay Lightning forward high fives his teammates after scoring a goal.

Leafs vs Lightning Picks and Predictions: Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line -1.5 (+140) Get 50% up to $1000 Deposit on BetOnline for this pick

This should be a great game between 2 of the best in the league. It should be an exciting game as well, as I lean the over for this game. When it comes to my pick – give me the Lightning to win by multiple goals.

Back in January, the Leafs took the game 5-3, but it was at home and not against Vasilevskiy. Vasi will be the difference maker of this game and keep the Lightning in a position to win. I also think the Leafs are going to have a hard time getting the puck passed Vasi.

I do like some player props for this game. The 1st is William Nylander to record 3 or more shots on goal for -130. He’s coming off a 0 shots game last night, so expect him to be firing against a team he has great history against.

Another prop I like is also from the Leafs side, but it’s a small one. Matthew Knies for 2 or more shots on goal for also -130. He is coming off a 3 shot game and has hit in his last 4 out of 5 games. Knies also has hit his mark 62% of the time vs Tampa.

Don’t get it twisted by a few shot props – it’s the Lightning tonight!