Four Nations Face-off Betting Guide

The NHL Four Nations Face-off tournament officially kicks off tonight. This tournament is replacing the typical NHL All-Star break, but instead of flashy skills contests followed by a series of round robin games that felt more like pick-up hockey than the real thing, the NHL is delivering a special tournament.The tournament brings together the best of Canada, the U.S., Sweden, and Finland in a high-stakes battle for national pride and one sick looking trophy. And I am now HYPED on what we will get to witness.

Never once have we seen Sidney Crosby play with the likes of MacKinnon and McDavid. Never once have some of the modern greats like Auston Matthews, Aleksander Barkov and Mitch Marner play in an international tournament. This is truly the closest we have come to a Winter Olympics style tournament since the 2010 Winter Olympics.

But which team should you back? And where’s the smart money in this tournament? Let’s break it down and find a tournament long prop for each of them to bet on. We’ll be looking for some Four Nations Face-off best bets to get your sweating our the entire event!

1. Canada: The Heavyweight Favorite +150 to win the tournament on BetOnline:

Strengths: Depth, depth, and more depth. Canada’s talent pool is unmatched, with superstars up and down the lineup. Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar—need I say more? Their power play will be lethal, and their ability to roll four lines with elite skill makes them a nightmare matchup.

This is by far the best forward group in the tournament. It contains some of the leagues top point producers, top goal scorers and has grit and two-way play to boot. The fourth line of Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli and Travis Konecny will agitate opponents and can help shut down power plays. And the top end skill is eye popping.

This will be the team to lean into team total overs, multi-point games from some of the 2nd tier names of the team who should still get big minutes. For instance, the value you can get on Cale Makar (+320) or Mark Stone (+400) to get 2+ points is fantastic considering their roles on the team. Makar will be quaterbacking a power play unit with Crosby, MacKinnon, Reinhart and McDavid while playing on the top defensive pair. Mark Stone will get 2nd power play unit time and be on a dangerous 2nd line with MacKinnon and Sidney Crosby.

Weaknesses: Goaltending. Canada’s Achilles’ heel has often been in net. If they don’t have a hot goalie, an upset isn’t out of the question. Also, in a short tournament, one bad game can spell disaster—even for the most skilled squad. Jordan Binnington will be the starter, but his 2.89 goals against average and sub .900 save percentage aren’t the most confidence inducing stats. His backups are equally shaky. Team Canada’s chance for glory could be spoiled by sub-par goaltending.

Betting Outlook: As the favorites, their outright odds will be short (+100 to +150 range), meaning value might be limited. However, betting on Canada in individual matchups—especially against weaker teams—is usually a safe play. Consider betting the puck line (-1.5 goals) in early-round games.

FOUR NATIONS FACE-OFF BEST BET TEAM CANADA: Sam Reinhart to score two goals +100 

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2. USA: The Fast and the Fearless +160 to win the tournament on BetOnline:

Strengths: Speed and scoring. The Americans bring a high-octane attack, led by Auston Matthews, Jack Hughes, and a deep supporting cast. Their top-six forwards can hang with anyone, and their defense, featuring Adam Fox and Quinn Hughes, is built to push the pace. In reality this forward roster is nearly as deep and impressive as team Canada. With players multiple 50+ goal scorers on the roster and tons of grit brought by the Tkachuk brothers.

Outside of a strong forward roster, team U.S may have the strongest goaltenders. Vezina trophy winning goalie Connor Hellebuyck will lead the charge. He is once again putting up unbelievable numbers this season and could be the difference maker. He is backed by Jake Oettinger, another goalie who can win games by himself.

The defense is a nice mix of puck movers, shot blockers and two-way play. This team U.S lineup looks versatile, punishing and speedy.

Weaknesses: Goal scoring depth. While the U.S. has star power, their bottom-six forwards and defensive depth aren’t quite as strong as Canada’s and against teams like Finland and Sweden who have been fine with grinding down teams in international tournaments, this depth could get them in trouble.

Team U.S was criticized for not including top American born players like Clayton Keller and Jason Robertson, and instead added the likes of Brock Nelson and Vincent Trochek to the roster. And while these two players can bring some two-way play and grit, this is already a roster loaded with those skillsets. A player like Keller or Robertson would help give team U.S scoring on all four lines and the 2nd power play unit more dangerous.

Betting Outlook: The U.S. offers strong betting value, especially in plus-money matchups against Canada or Sweden. Their team total for goals might be a solid bet, given their offensive firepower.

FOUR NATIONS FACE-OFF BEST BET TEAM U.S: Kyle Connor to score two goals +150

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3. Sweden: The Tactical Titans +420 to win the tournament on BetOnline:

Strengths: Structure and goaltending. Sweden thrives on a disciplined, two-way game. With Victor Hedman leading the defense and a rock-solid goaltender (likely Linus Ullmark or Filip Gustavsson) between the pipes, they’ll be a tough nut to crack.

This defensive core truly has some elite talent and is by far the teams strongest unit. They have multiple Norris trophy winning defensemen in Victor Hedman and Erik Karlsson. Meanwhile young talent like Gustav Forsling and Rasmus Dahlin are pushing to be considered top 10 defensemen in the league. There is a good mix of vets who have won it all and young talent. Plus the offensive upside to this unit is very dangerous.

The forwards are a mix of size and goal scoring. Players like Joel Eriksson Ek and Elias Lindholm can shut down top lines, while goalscorers like Adrian Kempe, Filip Forsberg and William Nylander can help make the power play very dangerous.

Weaknesses: Scoring depth. While they have elite talents like Elias Pettersson and William Nylander, they might not have the offensive firepower to keep up in a track meet against the U.S. or Canada. While there is elite scoring talent on nearly every line, there isn’t the same amount of elite talent as U.S and Canada. Although Jesper Bratt and Lucus Raymond on the third line could cause some major mismatches.

Betting Outlook: The under is your friend when Sweden plays. Their strong defensive play makes betting under 5.5 goals a great option. As a dark horse, a futures bet (+420 or more) might be intriguing, but they’ll need a near-perfect tournament to win it all. However, these bet feels like it’s worth a sprinkle to hedge on a team like Canada or the U.S to win it all.

FOUR NATIONS FACE-OFF BEST BET TEAM U.S: Lucus Raymond to score two goals +480

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4. Finland: The Ultimate Underdog +1,000 to win the tournament on BetOnline:

Strengths: Grit, goaltending, and team-first hockey. The Finns play a structured, no-nonsense game. They’ll be tough defensively and opportunistic offensively, with stars like Aleksander Barkov leading the charge.

Finland may have some of the best defensive forwards in the tournament. Barkov, Aho, Hintz, Lundell and Grandlund have made names for themselves as some of the best two-way forwards in the league. Their center depth will be extremely difficult to play against. And if team Finland can play responsible and limit power play opportunities they can grind and frustrate their opponents.

Weaknesses: Lack of elite firepower. Finland doesn’t have the same high-end scoring talent as the other three teams, which could be a problem in a tournament where they’ll need to keep pace. The third and fourth lines of this line up don’t look far of from actual NHL 3rd lines. The top six will have to be very deadly to help out pace other teams.

However, this is by and large the worst looking defense of the tournament. With Heiskanen out with injury this team has no true #1 defenseman, let alone 3-4 like other rosters. It will be very difficult for this blue line to keep up with the speed of team Canada and U.S

Betting Outlook: Betting Finland to cover the spread (+1.5) is usually a smart play, as they tend to keep games close in International Tournaments. However, eith their lack of goalscoring ability if may be better to take teams like U.S or Canada to cover the spread against them (-1.5) . They’re a great upset pick if they get hot, so a sprinkle on them to win the tournament (+1,000 or higher) could be a fun long shot although very very risky.

FOUR NATIONS FACE-OFF BEST BET TEAM U.S: Mikko Rantanen to score two goals +230

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