Saints vs. Packers | Week 16 Predictions, Odds & Best Bets

FAMILY, it’s Monday night and we’re ready to wrap up Week 16. We’ve got a decent matchup tonight on Monday Night Football, maybe more so if you’re a fan of the Packers.

It’s Toyotathon Jordan Love against the Saints’ 3rd string QB, Desmond Ridder. It’s snowy and 31° at Lambeau Field and this will be the first time the Saints have played in the snow this year. Two teams on opposite sides of the spectrum this year, the Saints ready for next year, the Packers looking to lock up a spot in the post-season tonight.

Lots to talk about so let’s jump right into my favorite props tonight at Lambeau Field.

Here are our best bets for the Saints vs. Packers

• Jayden Reed o43.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
• Christian Watson Longest Reception o23.5 Yards (-115)

Saints @ Packers  Game Information

Lambeau Field; Green Bay, Wisconsin

Matchup Information

• Location: Lambeau Field; Green Bay, Wisconsin
• Date: Monday, December 23rd, 2024
• Kickoff: 8:15 PM EST

Quarterback Matchup

• New Orleans Saints: Desmond Ridder (0-1; 2024 – 208 YPG | 1 TD | 2 INT)
• Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love (8-4; 2024 – 246.1 YPG | 23 TD | 11 INT)

Betting Odds

Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.

Run Line

• New Orleans Saints +14 (-105)
• Green Bay Packers -14 (-115)

Money Line

• New Orleans Saints (+700)
• Green Bay Packers (-1100)

Total

• Over 43 (-110)
• Under 43 (-110)

Get 50% up to $1,000 on your NFL picks today at BetOnline

Saints vs. Packers Analysis & Breakdown

Jordan Love is 8-4 this year as a starter and all 4 of his losses have come to 12-win teams. 

Let’s take a trip back in time, it’s right after Week 2 came to a close. The Packers struggled their way to a win against the Colts with Jordan Love on the sidelines and the Saints are 2-0 with an unstoppable offense.

Since then, the Packers have gone 9-3, their only other losses coming to the Lions and the Vikings; and the Saints went 3-9, losing their starting QB and arguably their best defensive player, Marshon Lattimore.

The Saints are looking to next year already and I don’t think anyone was expecting this from this team. New Orleans’ parted ways with Head Coach Dennis Allen after a Week 9 loss to the Carolina Panthers.

Cheeseheads

Packers fans everywhere are riding high, the Pack have recorded 10 wins and can punch their ticket to the post-season with a win tonight in front of the home crowd. Jordan Love has been astounding in his 2nd year as a full-time starter, averaging 246.1 pass yards per game and throwing 23 touchdowns in just 12 starts this year.

Early on in the season, Love was having some issues taking care of the ball. He’s got 11 interceptions on the year, including some that went the other way for six, but over his L4 games he’s got a clean sheet in the turnover department.

The Packers average 27.1 PPG this year and over their L3 games, that numbers jumped to 30.1 PPG. Toyotathon Jordan Love has activated and I don’t think there’s anyone on this Saints defense that can stop him.

Updated Jordan Love career numbers:

Not during Toyotathon:
3,829 yards, 29 TDs, 25 INTs

During Toyotathon:
3,283 yards, 26 TDs, 2 INTs

— Lombardi Ave (@lombardiave) December 16, 2024

Jayden Reed o43.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Toyotathon

I’ve talked plenty about Toyotathon Jordan Love but let’s take a look at the receivers that benefit most from Jordan Love elevating his game. Jayden Reed, last season, in the seven games during Toyotathon averaged 7 targets per game, over 50 receiving yards per game and scored 5 touchdowns.

This year, Reed’s seen a drop in both target share and receptions per game. He’s scored 6 touchdowns in 14 games and he’s failed to clear this line in 5 straight weeks. It’s a tough prop to want to talk but just hear me out and let’s talk about this Saints defense.

He’s already made NFL history in the first 25 games of his career

1 RT = 2 #ProBowlVote for @JaydenReed5! pic.twitter.com/c8FF2fKOqf

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 22, 2024

New Orleans ranks 28th in receiving yards allowed this year and 29th against WRs. The Saints traded away the team’s best CB, Marshon Lattimore and now the secondary’s looked even worse. The Saints have allowed the opposing WR1 to catch 5+ balls in 7 of their L10 games, including 5 straight games.

In these 5 games, the opposing WR1 is averaging 89.2 receiving yards, 5.6 catches on 9.2 targets and they’ve allowed 4 touchdowns; allowing 1 or more in 3 of the 5 games. Not only have they had trouble with the opposition’s #1, but they’ve had nothing but issues all year guarding the slot.

Jayden Reed lines up in the slot for 74% of his snaps and leads the Packers in this category by a wide margin. The Saints have allowed big games to other slot receivers like Chris Godwin (11/13 125 Yards 2 TDs), Drake London (8/13 97 Yards), Ladd McConkey (6/6 111 Yards) and countless others.

Tonight it’s Jayden Reed in the driver’s seat and he’s beyond due for a big game.

Jayden Reed o43.5 Receiving Yards (-113) via BetOnline

Get 50% up to $1,000 on your NFL picks today at BetOnline

Christian Watson Longest Reception o23.5 Yards (-115)

Christian Watson and Jordan Love may have perfected the art of the deep ball. Watson’s cleared this line in 4 of his L5 games and with how bad the Saints have been defensively I don’t see why the Packers don’t aim for the moon again tonight.

Watson has been great this year, averaging just 2.2 receptions per game but 47.7 receiving yards. He sits 2nd in the league in average depth of target (aDOT) among all players with at least 50 targets this year (17.7 yards per target). 

New Orleans has given up a reception of 20+ yards in 9 of their L10 games and are allowing just over 11 yards per completion this year. The Saints are in disarray and with the weather being as cold as it is, look for the Packers to take advantage with a couple deep shots to Watson.

30% off all Betalytics Packages, Code: BNEWS

Christian Watson Longest Reception o23.5 Yards (-115) via BetOnline

Get 50% up to $1,000 on your NFL picks today at BetOnline

To Recap, NFL Bets for December 23rd, 2024:

In the Packers vs. Saints game on Sunday, we’re rolling with 2 props. Jayden Reed o43.5 Receiving Yards (-113) & Christian Watson Longest Reception o23.5 Yards (-115); both via BetOnline

Follow me on ‘X’ @VSaaauce for all my picks and sports takes you didn’t ask for!

Follow Betting News on ‘X’ and Twitch and catch us on stream!

Betting News on TikTok! Follow us for more picks, and news!

Still Here?

More Betting Stories Across All Major Leagues

• NFL Next Coach to Be Fired
• NBA Player Props for Tonight
• 2024/25 NBA Futures | Awards: Who’s Winning Most Improved