Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview: Will wild Week 9 wrap with another road upset?

After an NFL betting Sunday that was strange, to say the least, Week 9 of the NFL season wraps up tonight in Pittsburgh. Tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup sees the Steelers, winners of three straight take on the Bears, losers of three straight. Given yesterday’s results, we can chuck form out of the window, far, far, far away into the stratosphere.

The Steelers opened the season by stunning the Bills in Buffalo, then lost three straight to fall into an early hole in the AFC North and AFC playoff picture. But with wins over the Broncos, Seahawks, and Browns, the outlook is more positive as the season hits its midpoint.

The outlook is a lot less positive in Chicago. The Bears are going through the ups and downs that come with starting a rookie quarterback. But they also have a head coach whose seat is very, very warm.

Will the Steelers continue their hot streak to keep things tight in the AFC North? Or will the Bears put a bow on a weird week by upsetting the odds in the Steel City?

Chicago Bears (3-5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3), ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET

Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Betting Odds

Moneyline

• Chicago Bears +260
• Pittsburgh Steelers -320

Total

• OVER 40.5 (-105)
• UNDER 40.5 (-115)

Spread

• Chicago Bears +7 (-112)
• Pittsburgh Steelers -7 (-108)

Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers NFL betting odds are via BetOnline Sportsbook as of Monday, November 8, 2021 at 1:20 p.m. ET. Want to compare NFL betting odds from several top online sportsbooks for every NFL matchup each week? Check out our NFL odds.

Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Betting Picks

Check out our Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers NFL betting picks, betting stats, and other Bears vs Steelers matchup info here: Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers Matchup: NFL Betting Picks, Odds, Stats and More

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Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers Best Bet

Over 40.5

Given where these two teams are at the moment, Steelers -7 is the most sensible side play. All five of the Bears’ losses have been by double digits, including last week’s 33-22 loss to the 49ers at Soldier Field. The Steelers aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard and blowing teams away, but they are winning.

But after yesterday’s results, there’s no way that advocating such a play makes even the tiniest bit of sense. Nor does Bears +7, so we’re focusing on the total for tonight’s game. Here’s a handy tidbit to potentially ponder, though it is a very small sample size.

Steelers-Bears total is 39.5 points.

This is just the 4th game with a total under 40 points in the past two seasons.

The over went 2-1 in the previous three games.

— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) November 8, 2021

NFL betting lines have shifted slightly since that tweet, as the total has moved to 40 at BetMGM and MyBookie and 40.5 at BetOnline Sportsbook. But it is still a worthwhile bit of info to consider for potentially buying back to 39.5 or even 39 for the sake of security.

Team Totals for Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers

• Chicago Bears: OVER 16.5 (-104), UNDER 16.5 (-118)
• Pittsburgh Steelers: OVER 23.5 (-118), UNDER 23.5 (-104)

The Steelers have allowed 17 or more points five times in seven games, while the Bears have allowed 24 or more points in five of their eight games.

Offensive Improvement Aiding Pittsburgh’s Push in Playoff Picture

The Steelers have hit the 20-point mark only three times in their first seven games, and it took them over a half to warm up against the Browns in last week’s 15-10 win in Cleveland. But their win streak can partly be attributed to an improved in output and efficiency on offense, and things line up well for a productive night against the Bears.

In the Steelers’ 1-3 start, Ben Roethlisberger had four touchdowns and four interceptions, and he averaged only 6.1 yards per attempt. In their win streak, he has four touchdowns and no interceptions, and he has averaged 7.6 yards per attempt. The Bears are in the top ten in the NFL in sacks but failed to record a sack against either the Bucs or 49ers. Additionally, they are 28th in the NFL in yards allowed per attempt (8.1) and 24th in opponent passer rating and are also at the lower end of the ladder when it comes to interceptions (4) and overall takeaways (8). Another efficient night looks likely for Big Ben.

That helps set things up well elsewhere. Rookie running back Najee Harris has also been more productive on the ground, picking up 294 yards in the last three games after tallying 185 in the first four games. Harris has scored a touchdown in each of the last three games as well. The Bears do not defend the run well and were roughed up in their consecutive setbacks to the Packers, Bucs, and 49ers. Over the three losses, they allowed 481 rushing yards at 5.5 yards a carry.

NFL Betting Player Props for Najee Harris vs Chicago Bears

• Rushing Yards: OVER 82.5 (-110), UNDER 82.5 (-110)
• Rushing Attempts: OVER 19.5 (-114), UNDER 19.5 (-114)
• Receiving + Rushing Yards: OVER 114.5 (-113), UNDER 114.5 (-113)
• To Have 90+ Rushing Yards: +126
• To Have 100+ Rushing Yards: +188
• Anytime Touchdown Scorer: -150
• To Score 2+ Touchdowns: +370

Will Nagy’s Return Bring Regression for Fields?

Bears head coach Matt Nagy is firmly on the hot seat, and his position doesn’t look any better after last week even though he wasn’t on the sidelines due to COVID.

Though the Bears fell to the 49ers, rookie QB Justin Fields had arguably his best performance to date. He completed over 70 percent of his passes, and he ran for 103 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts. That included a dazzling display of his athletic ability on this fourth-quarter scoring sprint:

.@justnfields ARE YOU SERIOUS?!? 🤯#SFvsCHI | #DaBears pic.twitter.com/o9vUGJL5h5

— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) October 31, 2021

His performance had the Bears ahead for much of the game and in it until the end. And it should–read “should”–provide something to build off of this week and moving forward.

With Nagy back in charge, will we see Fields take a step back? Or will Nagy decide to make the most of what he has in his rookie QB and rookie RB Khalil Herbert? The Steelers had nine sacks in their two most recent wins, and this is the perfect night to let Fields counter that by using his feet to make plays both through the air and on the ground.

There should be also a steady diet of Herbert tonight. The rookie from Virginia Tech has picked up 344 yards in his last four games and has one run of 20+ yards in each of the last three games. That is as many as Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook have for the entire season.

The last two MNF games have been low-scoring affairs with late field goals deciding the outcome in Kansas City and Seattle. But the first six finished with 40 or more combined points, including three with 60 or more. Based on how bizarre Week 9 has been, a game that looks like it should be low-scoring won’t be, right?

Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers Score Prediction

Pittsburgh Steelers 30, Chicago Bears 20