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StaffDNA Cure Bowl, Ohio vs Jacksonville State: NCAA Football Best Bets (12/20)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Updated:
Read Time: 7 minutes
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We’ve got some early morning Friday bowl game action down in Orlando as the Jacksonville State Gamecocks take on the Ohio Bobcats in the StaffDNA Cure Bowl. The Bobcats have made very light work of their opponents this season.
Ohio went 9-3 in the regular season, losing just once in MAC play to the Miami (OH) Redhawks. They got their revenge in the conference championship, demolishing their opponent 38-3. In their last six wins, their closest contest has been a 17 point victory, but now they face a very fired up Jacksonville State team.
Jacksonville State is going bowling for their 2nd straight season in just two years as an FBS program. After starting off 0-3, they won 7 of their last 8 games, and the CUSA Championship on their way to a 9-4 record this season. Their one loss was essentially a meaningless game to WKU, whom they then destroyed in the conference championship, winning 52-12. Who will come ready to play on Friday in Florida to take home some hardware?
Ohio Bobcats vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks: StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Matchup Information – Ohio vs Jax State
- Venue & Location: Camping World Stadium (Orlando, FL)
- Date: Friday, December 20th, 2024
- Kick Off: 12:00pm Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN
Betting Odds
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Spread
- Ohio -5 (-110)
- Jacksonville State +5 (-110)
Money Line
- Ohio -195
- Jacksonville State +170
Total
- Over 56 (-115)
- Under 56 (-105)
Bowl Games are Starting Early This Friday in Florida
So we have two conference champions meeting in Florida to add to their postseason success. Only one can be victorious, who wants it more?
The Ohio Bobcats are currently the only team in the FBS that does not have a single player listed in the transfer portal. Their head coach has left for Charlotte, but OC Brian Smith will lead the team in this bowl game. As for the Gamecocks, HC Rich Rodriguez took the same job at West Virginia, and OC Rod Smith will lead the charge. The list of transfers is quite long for Jacksonville State, and with a couple key defensive players already signing elsewhere, meaning they may be depleted as a unit.
Starting Safety Zechariah Poyser has signed with Miami and their best OLB Reginald Hughes has signed with Colorado, both are unlikely to see the field. Three other starting DBs have also thrown their name in the portal, and starting WR Cam Vaughn has done the same, although he is still listed as the WR2 on the bowl game depth chart. Some of those names may still suit up tonight, but seeing the field is a different story.
I’ve got to lean with the side that has severely less question marks, but I’m not sure I’ll bring anything to the table on the side of total. However, my buddy Mr. Marchio does have a player prop.
Ohio Bobcats vs Jacksonville State Best Bets
Ohio vs Jacksonville State Prediction: Ohio Wins & Covers, Under 56
Best Bets: Tre Stewart Over 105.5 Rushing Yards (-114) BetOnline
Let’s check in with our guy, Colby Marchio on why he likes this prop.
Colby Marchio: The Bobcats are known for their strong rush defense, but what quality rushing offenses have they faced in the MAC this season? Central Michigan, ranked 44th nationally in rushing yards per game, managed 161 yards against them. Buffalo, ranked 65th, rushed for 126 yards. The rest of the conference leans heavily on the pass, so it is no surprise that Ohio has held opponents to under 100 rushing yards per game this season.
Friday night in the Cure Bowl against Jacksonville State will be the Bobcats’ biggest test yet. The Gamecocks boast one of the best rushing offenses in the nation, ranking second in rush yards per game (267.3) and third in rush attempts (53.6). The Bobcats will face the challenge of stopping Gamecocks’ senior running back Tre Stewart, who has exceeded his rushing yards prop of 105.5 in seven of his 13 games this season. Stewart has surpassed the 200-yard mark three times this year and averages 123 yards per game on 20 attempts. In conference play, he has been a force, averaging nearly 150 yards per game on almost 24 carries.
Jacksonville State is going to shock the Ohio Bobcats’ system with the dominance of their run game. Beyond that, this game holds tremendous significance for the Gamecocks, who joined the FBS less than two years ago and were not bowl-eligible last season despite finishing 9-4 in 2023. This team will be hungry to prove they belong on this stage, having had to sit out last year.
I am considering taking this prop as high as 150+, but I am fully confident in the over at 105.5 rushing yards.
Best Bets: Parker Navarro Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-115) Bovada
Nate Hornung: I trust Mr. Marchio’s analysis and fully endorse this prop. But I’m going with the Bobcats’ QB to pound some ground.
Navarro averages 11 carries for 72.5 yards on the ground per game this season, and has gone for 64+ in 7/13 games. He’s hit 100+ in 3 of his L4 and on 5 separate occasions this year. The Bobcats are an extremely rush heavy offense, ranking Top 10 in Rush Play% and yards per rush, gaining 5.4 per carry.
Navarro runs for over 6.5 yards per rush this season with that number climbing to over 7 over his past 4 weeks. Jacksonville State ranks 91st in rushing yards allowed per contest, and fail to cover mobile QBs.
The Gamecocks let Liberty QB Kaidon Salter run 17 times for 68 yards, and Hunter Watson of SHSU ran 21 times for 105 yards and found the endzone. The Gamecocks are 88th in the nation in sack percentage, and I trust Navarro to escape pressure and extend some drives with his legs.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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