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NCAA Football Predictions, Odds & Best Bets: Thursday Bowl Games (12/26)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Updated:
Read Time: 6 minutes
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The day after Christmas is usually a lazy one, and I hope you get to spend it on your couch watching three (hopefully) thrilling bowl games on the NCAA Football slate! We will dive in to each matchup below and find you our best bets for the games. All three games are within a double digit spread, and with few opt outs, I hope we have some exciting games .
Be sure to check out all of our NCAA Football game pieces and Expert Picks for the entire weekend with our best bets. Here’s a few listed below.
- Game Above Sports Bowl: Pittsburgh vs Toledo
- Rate Bowl: Rutgers vs Kansas State
- 68 Ventures Bowl: Arkansas State vs Bowling Green
Thursday NCAA Football Best Bets
Pittsburgh vs Toledo Best Bets
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Best Bet: Pitt/Toledo Under 50 (-110) BetOnline
The Panthers list of opt outs, injuries, and transfers is much longer than the Rockets, and Pittsburgh may be without their Top 2 QBs. Backup Nate Yarnell is in the portal and will not play, while starter Eli Holstein missed the regular season finale and his status is still up in the air. Pitt will rely on redshirt freshman David Lynch if Holstein can’t go, but RB Desmond Reid should be back despite missing their last game.
Regardless, I don’t see either team producing much offense.
Both offenses are about middle of the pack in moving the ball and putting points up on the board, but both defenses are much better. Pittsburgh ranks 26th, holding opponents to less than 5 yards per play, while the Rockets are 21st in that category while also ranking 32nd in scoring defense. Both teams are Top 60 in 3rd Down Conversion Rate defensively, and are inside the Bottom 40 offensively on 3rd down.
I see this being a boring game, where Toledo actually shows up to stun a Power 4 opponent. Give me defense to show out and slow down both offenses in a very low scoring affair. Pitt is 7-5 to the under, going under in 6 of their L8, while Toledo as stayed under in their last 3 matchups.
Rutgers vs Kansas State Best Bets
Best Bets: Avery Johnson (KSU) Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-125) BetOnline
This kid has a lot to prove. He’s losing some big names on his offense next year, but he’s still going to be the guy. In this bowl game tonight, I see him making plenty of plays with his legs, against a rushing defense that isn’t that great and struggles to contain mobile QBs.
The Scarlet Knights rank 103rd (of 134 FBS teams) in yards allowed per rush, giving up 5 yards per carry to opponents. They also allow nearly 150 yards on the ground per game, but are Top 10 in rush play percentage. They do not get tested in the trenches very often each game. Things are going to change tonight against a Kansas State team that controls the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football.
Even without starting RB DJ Giddens, the Wildcats still have Johnson and Dylan Edwards as rushing threats. Kansas State ranks Top 50 in rush play % this season, and are Top 5 in yards per rush, going for over 5.6 yards per carry. They are Top 20 in rushing yards per game, and they are certainly going to put the Rutgers D-Line to the test.
Johnson runs for 45.6 yards per game on 8.5 carries. He already runs for over 5 yards per carry, and has kept that up over his L2 games. He’s ran for 50+ in half his games this year including those last 2, an K-State is Top 15 in protecting their QB.
Now, against mobile QBs, Rutgers struggles. This is what they’ve allowed this year.
Mobile QBs vs Rutgers
- Ja’Shawn Scroggins (Howard): 12-67, Long 18
- Kyron Drones (VT): 9-60, Long 33
- Ethan Garbers (UCLA): 9-48-1, Long 49
- Luke Altmyer (ILL): 11-74-1, Long 30
Of the above QBs listed, none are as dangerous of a running threat at Johnson. Rutgers is going to have a tough time slowing him down today, and I think he’s good for 50+ on the ground.
Arkansas State vs Bowling Green Best Bets
Slight Lean: Arkansas State +8.5 (-110) BetOnline
I’ll admit I didn’t dive into this one as much as the other two and decided to sit it out. Slight lean with the Red Wolves as their last bowl win was in 2019. They lost in their bowl game last year (to another MAC opponent), and I see them coming with some extra fire tonight. They have just 4 players in the portal right now, with just one being a starter, while Bowling Green seems to have most of their team jumping ship for another school next year.
Starting RT Alex Wollschlaeger signed with Kentucky and LB Joseph Sipp signed with Kansas, both first-team All-MAC selections, along with RB Terion Stewart who signed with Virginia Tech. Four other players with at least 110 snaps this season will also not see the field. Reports have come out that all Bowling Green starters will play today, but even if that’s the case, I lean with a fired up Arkansas State team to keep this one close.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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