Hawaii Bowl, South Florida vs San Jose State: NCAA Football Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (12/24)

What better way to celebrate the holidays than with some Christmas Eve football on the Island, as the South Florida Bulls traveled a LONG way from home to face the San Jose State Spartans in the Hawaii Bowl! The Spartans will be without stud WR Nick Nash who has opted out of this bowl game. South Florida has also missed starting QB Byrum Brown who hasn’t seen the field since Week 5, but HC Alex Golesh said he is practicing and healthy as ever. Does that mean we will see him suit up tonight?

As for other transfers and opt outs, SJSU will be missing both of their starting corners who have signed with USC and Arizona this offseason, as well as back up QB Emmett Brown. For the Bulls, their bad secondary will already be missing starting S Tawfiq Byard, along with DT Doug Blue-Eli who signed with Rutgers, and on the offensive side, starting LG Andrew Kilfoyl.

Other than those few names, we should see starters on both sides, and motivation at an all time high. Let’s dive in and find our best bet in this matchup!

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South Florida Bulls vs San Jose State Spartans: Hawaii Bowl

Matchup Information – South Florida vs San Jose State

• Venue & Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu, HI)
• Date: Tuesday, December 24th, 2024
• Kick Off: 8:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ESPN

Betting Odds

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Spread

• South Florida +3 (-113)
• San Jose State -3 (-107)

Money Line

• South Florida +123
• San Jose State -143

Total

• Over 64 (-112)
• Under 64 (-108)

Spartans and Bulls Celebrate Holidays in Hawaii

Despite nursing a hip injury, Brown is slated to at least see the field for a bit in this ball game. Regardless, South Florida will have to figure out a way to move the ball through the air. San Jose State’s rushing defense gets plenty of work, seeing a running play over 55% of the time, but they are Top 30 in yards per rush allowed, holding their opponents to less than 4 yards per carry. Their secondary certainly isn’t as good, and without both starting CBs, they could be exposed. However, I do not trust South Florida’s aerial attack enough to actually do some serious damage.

As for the Spartans, without Nash, things will be much tougher. But they have the nation’s most aggressive passing attack, led by junior QB Walker Eget, I trust them to move the ball in bunches. The Bulls also have a fairly decent rushing defense, but through the air things get a lot more questionable. They rank north of 100 (of 134 FBS teams) in plenty of defensive categories pertaining to the secondary, and with the sheer amount of pass attempts San Jose State will have, I see the USF DBs having a long day at work today.

While I do lean with the Spartans on the short ML, I’m not going to pull the trigger, and instead I’ll stick with a player prop where we’ve had some postseason success.

South Florida Bulls vs San Jose State Spartans Best Bets

South Florida vs San Jose State Prediction: SJSU Wins & Covers, Under 63.5

Best Bets: Walker Eget Over 304.5 Passing Yards (-115) Bovada

Walker Eget is going to be slinging the pill tonight. The guy has 30+ pass attempts in 6/8 complete games this season, and is throwing for over 14 yards per completion. He’s cleared 300+ yards in 4 of those 8 complete games, doing so in all 4 contests with at least 35+ attempts. He’s had 385 or more yards in 3 of his L4 as well, and even without stud WR Nick Nash, SJSU loves to throw it.

The Spartans are the #1 passing offense in the FBS, throwing the ball nearly 65% of the time. Volume will be our friend here, as I don’t expect anything to change, as throwing the ball is how you beat the Bulls. South Florida boasts a rushing defense that holds opponents to just 4 yards per carry, putting them 63rd in the FBS. However, through the air, their secondary can’t hang.

South Florida gives up 8.5 yards per pass, ranking 116th in the country. They allow 293.4 passing yards on nearly 35 attempts, ranking 2nd to last in yards and 11th worst in attempts per game. Not to mention their starting safety is in the portal and will not see the field. They don’t get to the QB all that often, and SJSU is 3rd in sacks allowed this season, barely letting their QB get touched.

Eget will have tons of time to sit back, relax, order a hot dog from the stands if he wants to, maybe even some nachos if he is feeling it, all before he finds an open receiver downfield.

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