#12 Clemson vs #9 SMU: NCAA Football Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (12/7)

The ACC Championship is going down this Saturday in Charlotte, and we’ve got a regular face and a new party in the conference battling it out. This game has massive implications, as the winner gets a spot in the College Football Playoff, while the loser likely misses out and ends up in a meaningless bowl game. Regardless, we are in for a treat as the #12 Clemson Tigers take on the #9 SMU Mustangs.

After dropping a stinker against Georgia in their opening game, Clemson went on to win six straight, and none of them were particularly close. They lost when the Louisville Cardinals came to town, and dropped a rivalry game to #15 South Carolina last week. However, they find themselves in the conference championship, with a spot in the CFP and likely a first round bye one the line as well. Can they show the ACC newcomers who runs this conference?

The Mustangs were rock solid all year long. They went a perfect 8-0 in their first year in the ACC, have two ranked wins (which is two more than their Title Game opponent), and they’ve managed to score at will. Their one loss came to a very good BYU team early in the year by just 3 points. Personally, I think the Stangs should have a shot at the CFP as long as they keep this game close, but let’s dive in and I’ll let you know why that shouldn’t even matter.

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#12 Clemson Tigers vs #9 SMU Mustangs: ACC Championship

Matchup Information – Clemson vs SMU

• Venue & Location: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, NC)
• Date: Saturday, December 7th, 2024
• Kick Off: 8:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ABC

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Clemson +2.5 (-113)
• SMU -2.5 (-107)

Money Line

• Clemson +113
• SMU -133

Total

• Over 56 (-119)
• Under 56 (-101)

Clemson & SMU Battle for a Spot in the CFP

Neither team thought they would be here at the beginning of the season, but here we are. Clemson went 7-1 in ACC play despite their 0-2 record against ranked teams, and Dabo has his boys back in the conference championship. They played a cupcake schedule in a league that didn’t turn out the way everyone thought (Looking at you, FSU). But, they are in a “win and in” situation for the CFP, and they’ve certainly been in this spot before.

SMU, however, has not. They are a newcomer in a Power 4 conference, but they managed to go 8-0 with two ranked wins, one of them away from home. They escaped against Duke on the road, and have outscored teams 71-13 over the past two games. The offense has been firing all season, the defense is picking up steam, and I have a lot of faith in the Ponies to show Dabo there’s someone new in the conference to be reckoned with.

Looking at a few head to head opponents, the Mustangs took down Louisville on the road by a touchdown as 7 point underdogs. Clemson lost to the Cardinals at home by 12 points as double digit favorites. SMU also beat Pittsburgh at home by 23 points as 7 points favorites, while Clemson took down Pitt on the road by 4 on a miracle run, failing to cover the 12 point spread. More recently, SMU has won 9 straight games, is 6th in the nation in points per game, while Clemson lost to South Carolina, and beat… *checks notes*… the Citadel. Clearly that game didn’t get the boys ready for a real football team.

#12 Clemson Tigers vs #9 SMU Mustangs Best Bets

Clemson vs SMU Prediction: SMU Wins & Covers, Over 56

Best Bets: SMU ML (-133) BetOnline

I love the Ponies in this spot. We lost our Miami to win the ACC ticket last weekend, and were hoping to have a spot to hedge, but now we’re just going to get that sprinkle back with SMU.

Like I said, SMU is one of the highest scoring offenses in the country, putting up 37.4 points per game. That number has stayed true over the last few weeks, but you can’t say the same for Clemson. The Tigers are 19th in the country, scoring over 34 points per game. But, that number not only drops to 25.8 away from home, and it’s down to 20.7 over the past three weeks. Unless your name is the BYU Cougars, you are going to have to score to beat the Mustangs.

While Clemson’s defense is solid, allowing just 22.3 points per game, SMU’s is statistically better. The Mustangs only allow 21 points per game, are 9 spots ahead of the Tigers, and as I earlier stated, they’ve only allowed 13 points over the last two games.

I think SMU is playing much better football, they have a bigger chip on their shoulder, and I trust them to shut down a Cade Klubnik offense that has struggled against tough opponents. They only managed 14 points against South Carolina (12th in PPG Defense), and only had 17 against Pittsburgh (77th) until the final minute of the game.

This is a game where I expect the Mustangs to come more prepared and are ready to show the ACC Juggernaut who’s boss.

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