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Valparaiso vs UIC: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | March 6, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Round three between UIC and Valparaiso is set, this time with everything on the line in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. The Flames have taken both regular-season meetings, but can they complete the sweep on a neutral court in St. Louis? With UIC’s offense primed for another big night, the best play might not be the spread—it is the team total.
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Last Month in CBB: 44-47 (-7.36 Units)
Wednesday’s Card: 4-1 (+1.6u)
#11 Valparaiso vs #6 UIC Odds
Can UIC take down Valparaiso once again?
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Spread
Valparaiso: +4 (-115)
UIC: -4 (-105)
Total
Over: 147.5 (-115)
Under: 147.5 (-105)
Moneyline
Valparaiso: +150
UIC: -170
#11 Valparaiso vs #6 UIC Best Bet
The third showdown between these Missouri Valley warriors is set, this time in the conference tournament. UIC has controlled the series so far, taking down Valparaiso 81-74 on January 18 and again on March 2, winning 77-73 in Chicago. Now, the Flames enter as four-point favorites on a neutral court in St. Louis. Will Valparaiso finally get their revenge, or will the Flames prevail once again? Either way, we are all in on UIC’s offense in this one. No need to stress over a side when the team total looks even more enticing.
Since February 1, the Beacons’ defense has been hanging around the 290s in national rankings. They own the 10th-worst effective field goal percentage defense, the 75th-worst two-point defense, and the 43rd-worst three-point defense. Valparaiso also struggles on the boards, ranking 38th-worst in offensive rebounding. That should allow UIC to limit second-chance points while creating more scoring opportunities for their own offense.
UIC’s road offense has been outstanding, ranking inside the top 50 in effective field goal percentage. They excel in both two- and three-point shooting and sit in the top 110 in three-point rate. Getting to the free-throw line is no issue either, ranking 84th in free throw rate. The Flames have averaged 72 points per game on the road in Missouri Valley play, while Valparaiso is surrendering 77 points per game away from home.
Expect an up-tempo matchup. UIC ranks 74th in tempo, according to Bart Torvik, while Valparaiso sits at 118th. The Beacons tend to push the pace even more in their home gym, so a fast game suits both teams. Against other high-tempo opponents in conference play, Valparaiso has allowed Belmont and Indiana State to clear this number in three of four meetings—both teams ranking ahead of UIC in pace.
Averaging just 66.2 points per game over their last five, UIC’s offense is due to break out—especially against a team they just faced and had success against. Skip the spread and take the team total over.
Best Bet: UIC Team Total Over 75.5 (-115) on BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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