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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets | February 22, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Saturday’s college basketball slate is packed, and there are a few key spots worth targeting. TCU is in a prime letdown spot after its biggest win of the season, while ETSU and Wofford should grind out a defensive battle at a slow pace. Let us break down why fading the Horned Frogs and backing the under in this mid-major matchup are the best bets for the day.
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TCU vs Cincinnati Best Bet
Will TCU be able to keep their hot streak alive?
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TCU is coming off its biggest win of the season after taking down No. 9 Texas Tech as a 7.5-point home underdogs. Following that massive victory, the Horned Frog faithful stormed the court in celebration—and rightfully so. However, now is the time to fade them. That win marked back-to-back underdog victories for TCU. Now, it must travel to Cincinnati to face a desperate Bearcats team that has lost two straight. This has “TCU letdown” written all over it.
The number seems a bit too high to back Cincinnati, but a better way to fade TCU after its “Super Bowl” is by taking its team total under. The Bearcats are one of the best home teams in the country, ranked 47th per Haslametrics. They have the 26th-ranked home defense, excelling at defending both the interior and perimeter. Most importantly, they are disciplined, ranking 15th in free throw rate defense. At home, they allow an average of just 62 points per game.
TCU has been dreadful on the road this season, ranking 21st worst per Haslametrics. The Horned Frogs are 342nd in effective field goal percentage, 299th in turnover rate, 361st in three-point shooting, and 286th in free throw percentage. Their offense is a mess, averaging just 64 points per game away from home. In conference play, they rank near the bottom in almost every key category.
Coming off such a massive win and immediately hitting the road, some regression is expected. The game should be played at a slow, methodical pace—Cincinnati ranks 289th in tempo. The Bearcats’ defense should be able to hold the Horned Frogs under 60.
Best Bet: TCU Team Total Under 62.5 (-118) on BetOnline
ETSU vs Wofford Best Bet
Can Wofford hold down ETSU in their rematch?
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We have to show some love to the mid-majors, so let’s talk about this ETSU vs. Wofford under.
The last time these two faced off, Wofford dominated ETSU, winning 81-78 and soaring over the 141 total by 18 points. Wofford shot over 60% from the field and 45% from deep in that win. Now, the total opens five points lower than their first meeting. This one should be much tighter.
Wofford will keep this game low and slow with its methodical tempo, ranking 340th at home. ETSU also prefers a slower pace, making it surprising that the first matchup was so high-scoring. On the road, ETSU ranks 294th in tempo.
The Terriers are coming off a massive blowout win over VMI, 82-43, as 5.5-point favorites. ETSU is also riding momentum after a big win over UNC Greensboro, 65-49, as a short favorite.
Both defenses should show up in this one. ETSU boasts the second-best defense in the Southern Conference, excelling at forcing turnovers, protecting the rim, and blocking shots—all ranked second in the league. Offensively, they struggle, ranking eighth in effective field goal percentage in conference road games. They have issues scoring inside and getting to the free-throw line.
Wofford has been solid defensively at home, ranking 94th in effective field goal percentage defense, sixth in defensive rebounding, and 52nd in two-point defense. In conference play, they are the second-best team at defending the perimeter. Offensively, they are nothing special—frequently getting their shots blocked, struggling at the free-throw line, and turning the ball over at a high rate.
If both teams maintain their slow tempos and make scoring a grind, this game should go under with ease. Expect both defenses to step up in a big way.
Best Bet: Game Under 137.5 (-110) on BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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