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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets | February 14, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Saturday’s college basketball slate features some exciting matchups with high stakes on the line. The action will be fast and furious, with top teams looking to make statements and secure big wins. Let’s dive into the best bets of the day, where the home teams have a distinct advantage in key games, and one unranked squad could surprise a ranked opponent.
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Last Month in CBB: 39-48-1 (-13.27 Units)
Thursday Night: 0-1 on write ups
#1 Auburn vs #2 Alabama Best Bet
Does Alabama have what it takes to take down their fierce rival, No. 1 Auburn?
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Game of the Week? Game of the Century.
The biggest Iron Bowl in a long time—No. 1 vs. No. 2. Who comes out on top? I lean toward the home team in this one. If Auburn were at home, I would probably back them. However, the Alabama faithful will be electric, and that should be a massive advantage for this Crimson Tide team.
Both teams will be running at ludicrous speed, both will be scoring at a very high rate. These are the top two teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. Expect both offenses to show up and show out Saturday afternoon.
The Crimson Tide are the fastest team in the country, and with Auburn’s poor defensive rebounding and tendency to foul, this could get out of hand. The Tigers rank 316th in defensive rebounding and 65th worst in free throw rate defense away from home. Alabama ranks 55th in offensive rebounding and 21st in free throw rate offense at home this season. If they can exploit Auburn’s biggest road flaws in this matchup—by attacking second-chance points and knocking down free throws—the game is theirs. Especially with Alabama boasting the most efficient inside offense in the country, Auburn’s two-point defense may not be enough.
At the end of the day, the team that gets the most stops and executes more efficiently in a game that will be a track meet will come out on top. With Alabama at home, I lean toward the Crimson Tide securing the win—and for the game to go over 172.5.
Lean: Game Over 172.5 (-105)
Best Bet: Alabama Moneyline (-118) on BetOnline
#15 Kentucky vs Texas Best Bet
Can Texas shock the Wildcats after their tough loss to Alabama earlier in the week?
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Do we really think the Wildcats care about a Texas team that is 4-8 in the SEC after knocking off Tennessee for the second time this season? I do not. Texas should catch the Wildcats sleeping Saturday evening, especially with the Longhorns needing every possible big win they can secure.
This season, the Longhorns have been a force at home, ranked 49th in the country according to Haslametrics. The Wildcats are regarded as one of the worst teams away from their home gym, ranked 345th in the country. With a top 25 offense, the Longhorns excel at protecting the basketball (4th in turnover offense), free throw rate (83rd), and three-point percentage (29th). On defense, they have been middle of the road, ranked 117th in adjusted efficiency, and they struggle defending the perimeter, ranked 285th. However, they have one of the best internal defenses in the country, ranked 25th in two-point defense.
On the road this season, Kentucky has struggled to force teams to turn the ball over, ranking dead last in turnover percentage. The Wildcats have been horrendous from the line, and they get their shots blocked frequently. They maintain a top 15 offense and are a strong three-point shooting team, but their defense is relatively weak.
Texas has been an inconsistent team all season, but with the Wildcats banged up and coming off a big win, I can see the Longhorns sneaking one past them. Yes, I will back this unranked home favorite against a ranked opponent. Hook ’em!
Texas Trends
- As home favorite SU: 10-2
- As favorite SU: 14-3
- At home SU: 10-5
- After a loss ATS: 6-3
Kentucky Trends
- On the road SU: 2-4
- After win ATS: 6-10
Best Bet: Texas Moneyline (-122) on BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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