North Florida vs Austin Peay Basketball Prediction & Picks (3/1): Who Will Move in the ASUN Tournament?

Many spots in this year’s NCAA Tournament field are already accounted for ahead of conference tournaments, but in smaller conferences, it’s automatic bid or bust. That includes the Atlantic Sun Conference, whose tournament gets underway today with two games between lower seeds. In the latter matchup, #8 seed North Florida will take on #7 seed Austin Peay in Florence, Alabama (7:00 pm ET, ESPN+).

In many college basketball conference tournaments, the #7 and #10 seeds would meet in one matchup, and the #8 and #9 seeds would meet in another matchup. But the ASUN does things a bit different, with the #7 and #8 seeds meeting in one matchup and the #9 and #10 seeds meeting in another.

The winner of the contest between North Florida (15-16, 8-10 ASUN) and Austin Peay (13-18, 8-10 ASUN) will face #2 seed North Alabama in the quarterfinals tomorrow (7:00 pm ET, ESPN+).

Traditionally, this tournament has been dominated by higher seeds. In fact, the last time someone seeded sixth or lower won the automatic bid was 1996, when sixth-seeded UCF (yes, the one that is now in the Big 12) defeated fifth-seeded Mercer to win the title in what was then known as the Trans America Athletic Conference.

So, the odds are against either one of these teams cutting down the nets and celebrating a spot in the March Madness field (and a possible trip to Dayton, Ohio for the First Four) next Sunday afternoon.

But the Ospreys and Governors have both beaten power conference opposition this season and aren’t here to just make up the numbers. This is a matchup that bears watching if for no other reason than to get you hyped up about the beginning of one of the best months of the year.

North Florida vs Austin Peay Basketball Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, where you can bet on college basketball odds for all of the top matchups on the road to March Madness and the Final Four.

Spread

• North Florida -3.5 (-105)
• Austin Peay +3.5 (-115)

Total

• Over 157.5 (-110)
• Under 157.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• North Florida -168
• Austin Peay +148

North Florida vs Austin Peay Betting Trends

• UNF is 6-5 SU and 5-6 ATS this season as a single-digit favorite. One of those outright losses came at home to Austin Peay on January 2, when they lost 97-89 as a 6.5-point favorite.
• Austin Peay is 6-8 SU and 7-7 ATS this season as a single-digit underdog.
• The over is 21-7-1 in North Florida’s 29 games against Division I opposition this season, including 12-0-1 when the total has been 159.5 or lower.
• Austin Peay has yet to have a game this season with a total of 150 or higher, but in games with a total of 145 or higher, the under is 8-4.
• However, the over is 3-1 in the last four such games.
• Also, the over is 4-1 in the five head-to-head matchups between the Ospreys and Governors since Austin Peay joined the ASUN in 2022.

North Florida vs Austin Peay Analysis, Prediction, and Picks

Ospreys vs Governors Analysis

In the regular season, Austin Peay beat North Florida on the road, and both teams finished with the same record in conference play. However, the Ospreys are favored in this matchup on a neutral court.

Why is that? UNF, who won at South Carolina and Georgia Tech in non-conference play, profiles as the better team in large part due to their offensive output.

Entering today, the Ospreys rank 14^th in Division I in scoring (83.3 points per game). Only two opponents—Florida, who is one of the very best teams in college basketball, and Lipscomb, who is the #1 seed in the ASUN tourney—and they have scored 80+ points 18 times this season, including 105 in a 12-point win at Georgia Tech on November 10.

No team in the country loves the three like Matthew Driscoll’s team. They lead Division I in three-pointers made (12.8) and attempted (36.0) per game, and they hit them at a 35.7% clip, which is third in the ASUN and 84^th nationally.

North Florida has five players averaging double figures in scoring, as well as five players with 50+ made threes this season.

There is also uncertainty about the availability of two notable names for Austin Peay.

Sai Witt, the team’s leading rebounder (6.0 RPG) and second leading scorer (13.4 PPG), missed the final three regular season games, while Anton Brookshire, who averages 8.7 PPG (fifth on the team) and is one of the team’s top outside threats (35.9% 3PT, third on the team), missed two of the last three regular season games.

Ospreys vs Governors Prediction and Picks

UNF is the better team and should win this time around after squandering a 16-point lead in the first matchup against Austin Peay.

That said, staying away from the spread is the move here, given the uncertainty surrounding the availability of Witt and Brookshire. Both players came up big in the regular season win over the Ospreys, as Brookshire led the way with 25 points and Witt recorded 23 points and seven rebounds.

That said, the over is definitely the play, even with those potential absences in mind. North Florida is 363^rd out of 364 Division I teams in scoring defense, allowing 84.6 PPG, and they are 350^th in the nation in field goal defense (47.9%). Even with absences, Austin Peay should still be able to produce on the offensive end.

Conference tournaments can bring out nerves and adversely affect over/under bets, but scoring has been the name of the game in North Florida’s games all season, and that will be the case again tonight. Take the over for the full game, and take the over on the first half total (currently 73.5 at BetOnline) as well.

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