NCAA Basketball Predictions, Odds & Best Bets: Tuesday College Hoops (12/17)

There is ton’s of College Hoops tonight, so we are back for some more NCAA Basketball action! As always, we will be diving into the College Hoops slate to find our best bets for today! We’ve got a decent sized slate, however it is a very long season, so we will continue to pick our spots carefully.

For all of our Expert NCAA Basketball Picks, check out our page here. But for now, let’s get right into it!

Listed below are my College Hoops best bets for today, but be sure to get all of my picks on my Twitter (@Shaggy_Bets)

NCAA Basketball Best Bets – December 17th, 2024

Southern vs #17 Ole Miss Predictions

Best Bets: Ole Miss TT Over 84.5 (-120) BetOnline

The Rebels are back at home where they thrive, and I am backing them to score 85 against the Southern Jaguars tonight.

Now, Ole Miss ranks 213th in pace, but in 5 games at home this year, they are up to 100th in possessions per game, speeding things up on their home court. Offensively, they are incredibly efficient, ranking 15th overall, 63rd in eFG%, and leading the country in turnover rate. The Rebels turn the ball over just 8 times per contest, and are also Top 10 in forcing them as well.

I stated that Ole Miss plays slow, but they do speed things up at home. Plus, they also play to their opponent’s pace. In 5 games this season against teams ranking Top 180 in Pace, the Rebels have scored 85+ in 3 of those 5 games, ending on 84 against Colorado State. They’ve cleared this number in 3/5 at home as well, and Southern will look to push the pace.

The Jaguars are Top 150 in possessions per game, and they are terrible defensively. Just to give you a few stats, they are 311th in offensive rebounds allowed, 286th in FT Rate defense, and 295th in eFG Defense. Ole Miss should have a easy time putting the ball in the hoop tonight, and with the tempo in this game increasing based on the personnel, I see them having tons of chances to do so.

Give me Hotty Toddy to score tonight!

Texas Southern vs Boise State Predictions

Best Bets: Boise State -22.5 (-110) Bovada

Initially, the under in this game caught my eye. Then I realized the Texas Southern defense is pretty much nonexistent, plus they play very fast offensively.

The Tigers are a Top 100 team in pace, but they are north of 300 in multiple defensive categories. Let’s list them.

Texas Southern Defense

• eFG%: 339th
• OR%: 342nd
• FT Rate: 307th
• 3P%: 353rd

They are also 271st in overall defensive efficiency and 286th in turnovers forced. Offensively, sure they are a little better, but are still 330th in eFG% and 334th in 3P Rate. They simply won’t be able to keep up, and they’ll be giving a good Boise offense plenty of possessions to cover this spread.

Boise is already a Top 200 team in pace, and they are 200 spots overall better than their visitors. They are coming off a big OT win against Saint Mary’s after losing to Washington State, and now have several tune up games before facing San Diego State to start the new year. Just to illustrate how good #54 Boise is, here is where they stack up statistically in the country.

Boise State Advanced Analytics

• Adj. Off. Eff: 50th
• Adj. Def. Eff: 70th
• TO% Off: 50th
• FT Rate O: 30th
• FT Rate D: 52nd
• OR Allowed: 36th
• 3P% Def: 54th

The Broncos are just 3-6 ATS this year, failing to cover a number greater than 20 twice this season. However, in this matchup, I trust them to not mess around, and handle the Tigers early at home.

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