NCAA Basketball Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (2/27)

The weekend is quickly approaching, but while we wait for 150+ games we needed to check out our best bets for this Thursday’s slate! There’s plenty of low and mid-major action happening across the College Hoops landscape, so let’s get nasty and find some filth amongst the smaller schools.

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NCAA Basketball Best Bets – February 27th, 2025

UNC Wilmington vs Campbell Predictions

Best Bets: Campbell +3.5 (-110) BetOnline

Back the Fighting Camels with me at home tonight. Not only are they seeking revenge, but they did cover against this Seahawks team on the road. Right hand up, this is a bit of a plums play, but let me explain my thoughts.

The Camels have lost two straight while Wilmington is coming off a win. Buy low, sell high spot for each team, plus we’ve got the Senior Night narrative for our hosts who are only catching 3.5 after losing by 8 and covering the 11 on the road.

Campbell is 15-12 ATS and 12-7 as an underdog this year. They play slow and their defense improves on their home court. At home, the Fighting Camels ranks 76th overall defensively, 45th in eFG% defense and are Top 60 in offensive rebounds allowed. They are also 3rd in 3P% Defense, holding their visitors to less than 25% from deep when they come to town. In conference play, they have the best home defense while still holding their own offensively.

As for UNC-Wilmington, they cannot overcome Towson for the #1 seed in the conference, and ultimately, they have lost games they shouldn’t have on the road. Despite being 17-10 ATS, the Seahawks are just 4-4 as a road favorite this year. They were ranked 131st on Bart Torvik on 1/11 when they lost to #228 Hofstra. Two games ago when they were ranked 115th overall, Wilmington dropped a game to Hampton who was 210th. Back in December, they were ranked 136th when they lost to Howard who was 301st at the time.

Give the Camels to find a way to pull off this win as the Seahawks rest before the conference tournament.

Pepperdine vs Portland Best Bets

Best Bets: Pepperdine +3.5 (-110) BetOnline

Anyone interested in riding the Waves this evening? It’s a bit nasty but I think they can keep this one within a few points.

Now, let’s be transparent: Pepperdine lost by 20 at home to this Portland Pilots team. They were 9 point favorites and got absolutely destroyed. The Waves shot just 39% overall and 22.7% from deep (5/22). Meanwhile, the Pilots came into town and shot 55.6% overall and over 46% from deep (13/28). Will that happen again in Portland? Or are we due for a return to normalcy?

Pepperdine has not been playing great, but they’ve been playing tough teams. Despite being on the road, playing Portland will be a breath of fresh air compared to LMU, Oregon State, Gonzaga and Wazzu. The Waves are the fastest team in the conference, but I’ll admit, the defense is rough. However they keep their hands to themselves and actually improve offensively on the road. Now, Portland is still plenty fast, and their defense is just as bad.

The Pilots are Bottom 25 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, Bottom 6 in eFG% Defense and Bottom 12 in turnovers forced. Offensively, they are 287th in eFG%, 298th in taking care of the ball themselves, and 322nd in grabbing offensive boards. Like Pepperdine, they keep their hands to themselves despite the faster tempo.

Ultimately, both of these defenses are terrible. But part of me trusts the Waves’ offense a little bit more, especially considering they lost by 20 last time they faced each other. The spread has swung 12 points, which is too much for my liking, and Pepperdine has been looking to make adjustments while the Pilots are sitting with last matchup’s blowout in their minds. Give me the Waves to give them a wake up shock on the road tonight.

#23 Saint Mary’s vs Loyola Marymount Predictions

Best Bets: LMU TT Under 59.5 (-115) BetOnline

Read below for Colby Marchio’s full analysis on why he doesn’t think the Lions score much tonight.

Check out our #23 Saint Mary’s vs Loyola Marymount Preview!

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