NCAA Basketball Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (2/20)

Thursday brings us plenty of mid to low major College Hoops so let’s dive in to today’s best bets!

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Listed below are my College Hoops best bets for today, but be sure to get all of my picks on my Twitter (@Shaggy_Bets)

NCAA Basketball Best Bets – February 20th, 2025

Portland State vs Idaho State Predictions

Best Bets: Idaho State ML (-125) BetOnline

My CBB Sweetheart, the Idaho State Bengals find themselves hosting the Portland State Vikings in a Revenge Spot At Home (RSAH, surely that acronym catches on). Not only is it a revenge spot for Idaho State, but they are also coming off two losses, while the Vikings have won their last two. Quite the buy low spot for the Bengals tonight.

Idaho State was two point underdogs in Portland, losing by 17 with the total staying under 140.5 by 5 points. After losing by 15+, the Bengals are now short favorites at home with the exact same total as last game. To me, that’s a bit telling that Idaho State gets their revenge, but let’s look into the numbers to be sure.

Portland State is Bottom 20 in FT% and 3P Rate offensively, they are also 274th in FT Rate defense on the road. While they are the #1 defense in the Big Sky this season, they drop off to 5th when traveling, and they face a very good offense. The Bengals win the rebounding battle on both sides of the floor most games, and they are the top team in the conference in overall offensive efficiency, offensive rebounding and 3P%. Tonight I see their offense leading them to sweet revenge at home.

Oregon State vs Pepperdine Predictions

Best Bets: Pepperdine +7.5 (-105) BetOnline

As gross as it may seem, we are backing Pepperdine to cover three possessions at home against the Oregon State Beavers. Now, I don’t have a whole lot of data to back this up, as I’ll admit this might be a bit of a plums play.

This is a RSAH (Revenge Spot At Home if you missed that up top) for the Waves, and they are coming off a loss while the Beavers are coming off a win. The Beavers were 12.5 point favorites at home where they won by 20 with the total going over by 5 points. Now we have a increased total in this second matchup, but the Waves are only catching 7.5 this time around. Oregon State is bad defensively on the road. Let me illustrate.

Oregon State Home/Away National Ranks

• Adj Def Eff: 166th/260th
• eFG% Def: 163rd/333rd
• TO Forced: 186th/278th
• FT Rate Def: 155th/230th

The defensive fall off for the Beavers is real. Offensively, the only thing they do well is get to the free throw line, but Pepperdine ranks 41st in FT Rate defense at home. The Waves will certainly speed things up, as they rank 66th in possessions per game while Oregon State is 333rd. Pepperdine will do their best to give themselves extra offensive possessions to take advantage of a bad defense and cover this number. Don’t be surprised if they pull off this upset at home.

CS Fullerton vs UC Santa Barbara Predictions

Best Bets: UCSB -14 (-107) BetOnline

Last but not least, we are backing my Gauchos against the Titans of Fullerton tonight. UCSB has already beaten this team once on the road, winning by eight as eight point favorites. The total soared over 141.5, ending at 158, and has since ticked up to 144 in this second matchup. UCSB is favored by 14 now, and I still don’t quite think that is enough points.

The Gauchos play much slower than other teams, but they are extremely efficient on the offensive end, and make the most of their shots, especially from deep. Santa Barbara ranks 24th in eFG%, 52nd in 3P Rate while shooting over 39% from deep (7th in the country). They are also Top 100 in eFG% defense and offensive rebounds allowed. Again, they do play slow, but they’ve now had three straight games below their eFG% average of 55.7%. They are due for a great offensive night, which they did against Fullerton already, posting an eFG% in that game of 63.9%.

Now, CS Fullerton is bottom 3 in eFG% and bottom 15th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Defensively they rank 334th in 3P Rate, 303rd in overall efficiency and are north of 280 in FT Rate D and eFG% Defense. The Gauchos will be able to do whatever they please offensively against the 3rd worst defense in the conference. Fullerton won’t be able to keep up as they are dead last in the Big West in nearly every offensive category.

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