NCAA Basketball Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (2/14)

It’s Valentine’s Day today, and if there were ever a perfect day to take off, tonight would be it. Be sure to spend time with your loved ones tonight, however we still found a couple best bets on the College Hoops betting board.

For all of our Expert NCAA Basketball Picks, check out our page here. But for now, let’s get right into it!

Listed below are my College Hoops best bets for today, but be sure to get all of my picks on my Twitter (@Shaggy_Bets)

NCAA Basketball Best Bets – February 14th, 2025

Fairfield vs Saint Peter’s Predictions

Best Bets: St. Peter’s -4 (-110) BetOnline

We are backing the Peacocks tonight at home against the Fairfield Stags. Both of these teams have not been performing well in conference play, as the Stags are 5-8 while St. Peter’s is just 2-10 in the MAAC. Now why the heck would our hosts be favored in this game, other than the fact that they are playing at home.

I’ll tell you why very simply. Both of these offenses suck, but St. Peter’s defense doesn’t suck. Fairfield’s does.

These teams rank 319th and 339th overall on Bart Torvik, so they aren’t good. But let’s hop in to some advanced analytics. St. Peter’s offense is north of 340th (Bottom 25) in overall efficiency, eFG% and turnover rate. At home, those numbers are slightly worse, but they are still Top 10 at crashing the offensive glass. Fairfield is the same way. The Stags offense is 282nd in efficiency, 348th in eFG% and 335th at getting to the free throw line. They take good care of the basketball, but I don’t see that mattering much. Both offenses play slow, so I think getting stops will be crucial to win this game, and the Peacocks are better equipped to do that.

Fairfield ranks Bottom 10 in overall defensive efficiency on the road, Bottom 30 in eFG% defense, and are north of 250 at offensive rebounds allowed. The Peacocks defense actually ranks 67th in the nation in eFG% and they are Top 175 overall as well. In a very slow paced game (St. Peters bottom 5 in pace at home), defense will be the key to pulling out this victory.

They haven’t won at home since December 20th in an upset against Delaware, against a rare opponent who is actually worse, I like the Peacocks to get this tough win and cover.

Merrimack vs Manhattan Predictions

HEAVY LEAN: Merrimack ML (-148) BetOnline

If you choose to bet this, (I have not yet), I fully endorse paying the juice on the ML for the Warriors on the road. Merrimack as already won against the Jaspers at home, but they failed to cover by the hook, winning 69-62. With Manhattan hosting a revenge spot, I am a bit concerned about laying the points. However, Merrimack is the better team and I trust them to find a way to win.

The Warriors sit on top of the conference, just one game ahead of Quinnipiac (whom they lost to but play again) and a 1.5 games ahead of Marist (whom they play on Sunday). While you could argue the Warriors are looking ahead to that bigger MAAC battle, they can’t afford to drop any games anymore. Manhattan is a team they’ve handled before, and I expect them to come focused and do the same thing again.

Merrimack has no problem winning games on defense. They are the best defense in the conference, are Top 3 in FT Rate defense, TO defense and eFG% defense, as well as are the best at taking care of the basketball on the other end. The Warriors have only scored 70+ in 2 of their 11 conference wins this year, and have allowed less than 60 in 7 of 13 conference matchups. Give me Merrimack as a short road favorite to find a way to win this game.

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