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Monday College Basketball Best Bets | December 23, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 6 minutes
ncaab
Happy Festivus!!
Today’s slate brings excitement with intriguing matchups like North Dakota State vs. Cal State Bakersfield and Oregon State vs. Oakland. From teams due for offensive regression to defenses poised to take control, there are clear edges to exploit. Let us dive into these games and uncover the best betting opportunities on the college hardwood.
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Last Month in CBB: 39-27 (+9.09 Units)
Last 7 Days: 9-8 (+1.03 Units)
Cal State Bakersfield vs North Dakota State Best Bet
Can Cal State Bakersfield hold down the red hot Bison?
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This game will be defined by a slow tempo and offensive performances that have reached unsustainable highs, setting the stage for regression.
Let us begin with some offensive performances that are bound to come crashing down. North Dakota State has been shooting at an extraordinary level over their last three games, hitting 61.7% from the floor and 47.7% from behind the arc. Most notably, in their recent game against Western Michigan, the Bison shot nearly 70% from the field and 60% from deep. While North Dakota State is an efficient offensive team, these numbers are simply unsustainable.
The Roadrunners should be able to disrupt these high-percentage opportunities. While they are not the best at defending the three-point shot, they have been effective at protecting the interior against top-100 opponents. In two games, Cal State Bakersfield ranks 82nd in two-point defense and 43rd in defensive rebounding. Beyond those two games, the Roadrunners have also been respectable on the road, ranking in the top 175 in effective field goal percentage defense, defensive turnover percentage, and block percentage defense.
Cal State Bakersfield boasts a capable offense, but the Bison should have the tools to shut them down. At home, North Dakota State ranks in the top 60 in defensive rebounding, free throw rate defense, and three-point defense. They are also ranked 103rd in adjusted defensive efficiency and 105th in effective field goal percentage defense.
Adding to this, both teams rank in the bottom 40 in pace, according to Haslametrics. With Christmas break on the players’ minds and the Bison coming off an unsustainable shooting performance, the slow tempo should keep the total below 139.5. Most advanced analytics project the game ending around 139, but those models do not account for the upcoming holiday break or the improbability of replicating a 70% shooting performance.
Land down under.
Bet: Full Game Under (139.5) on BetOnline
Oregon State vs Oakland Best Bet
Can the Beavers hold down the Golden Grizzlies after their big win over Loyola Chicago?
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This line has been fluctuating significantly, opening at -12.5 in favor of the Oregon State Beavers and potentially dropping to -7.5 by tipoff. However, I do not think the movement matters, as I hold a -9.5 Oregon State ticket.
The Hawaiian Airlines Diamond Head Classic began with the Oakland Golden Grizzlies securing a thrilling last-second tip-in victory over Loyola Chicago. Now, they must regroup to face another top-110 opponent.
Isaiah Jones catches the short fadeaway and puts it back up for the Win with 0.3 seconds to play. Oakland hands Loyola Chicago their 2nd loss of the season (Video via @Brian_McInnis) pic.twitter.com/p9CXmUlzgb
— NCAA Buzzer Beaters & Game Winners (@NCAABuzzerBters) December 23, 2024
Oregon State brings one of the best defenses in the country to this matchup. The Beavers rank in the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, rebounding, and two-and three-point defense. Offensively, they are no slouch either, ranking in the top 75 in effective field goal percentage, free throw percentage, block percentage, and both two- and three-point shooting.
Oakland’s biggest advantage is its experience against tough competition. According to Haslametrics, the Golden Grizzlies rank 34th in strength of schedule, while Oregon State trails by nearly 240 spots.
That said, the Beavers are not untested this season. They have faced four opponents inside the top 125, including a win against Charleston on Sunday. While Oregon State’s offense was not at its best in that game, they still secured a nine-point victory by shooting 46.9% from the field, despite hitting just 25% from three.
Oakland, meanwhile, has been a mid-tier team away from home, ranking in the 200s across multiple advanced metrics. Their most glaring weakness is their inability to get to the free throw line or capitalize when they do. The Golden Grizzlies rank in the 350s in free throw rate and free throw percentage, though they did manage to shoot 9-for-10 from the line against Loyola Chicago. This is a team that relies heavily on three-point shooting—a strength the Beavers are well-equipped to neutralize.
This game sets up as a classic letdown spot for Oakland after their emotional win over Loyola Chicago. Expect the Beavers to stifle the Golden Grizzlies and come away with a decisive victory.
Bet: Oregon State (-8.5) on BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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