#24 Mississippi State vs #6 Alabama: NCAA Basketball Best Bets (2/25)

The gauntlet that is the SEC blesses us with a Super Tuesday rematch between two Top 25 teams this week. The #6 Alabama Crimson Tide host the #24 Mississippi State Bulldogs in conference play this week. We already saw these teams meet in Starkville, where the Bulldogs were one point home favorites.

Alabama ended up winning the game by 4, with the total going over 165. Despite nearly 40 points from Josh Hubbard, the Bulldogs fell at home 88-84. Tonight they go into Tuscaloosa looking for something positive after losing to the Sooners in Norman on Saturday. Alabama successfully ended their two game skid by beating the Kentucky Wildcats at home, sweeping them this season.

Can they do the same against Mississippi State? Or will the Bulldogs get a big win in their quest for better tournament seed?

#24 Mississippi State Bulldogs vs #6 Alabama Crimson Tide: SEC Rematch

Matchup Information – Mississippi State vs Alabama

• Venue & Location: Coleman Coliseum (Tuscaloosa, AL)
• Date: Tuesday, February 25th, 2025
• Tip Off: 9:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ESPN2

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Mississippi State +8 (-110)
• Alabama -8 (-110)

Total

• Over 171 (-105)
• Under 171 (-115)

Bulldogs Look for Revenge on the Road

Like I said above, Hubbard put up 38 points against the Crimson Tide when they came to town, but it wasn’t quite enough to get the W. He didn’t have the most offensive help, as only one other Bulldog broke double digit points. That will clearly need to change when facing the Tide a second time. This team is the fastest team in the nation, the 3rd most efficient offense at home, and 13th in eFG%.

Alabama isn’t really known for their defense, but it makes a major leap in the right direction at home. The Tide jump from 40th to 17th in defensive efficiency and 34th to 17th in eFG% Defense. I’ve talked about Alabama being a team that gets to the free throw line plenty, as they rank 18th in FT Rate. They might live there on Tuesday as the Bulldogs not only struggle to get to the line themselves, but are 318th in FT Rate defense on the road. The Tide already won the FT battle in Starkville (11/20 vs 10/16), and I expect them to absolutely do so again.

This spread swung 9 points towards the Tide after their outright win on the road, and I think it makes sense. However, RIGHT NOW, BetOnline is hanging -8 while the rest of the market is -8.5. I’ll take that half point and hopefully some overnight CLV, as I expect this to close closer to 10.

#24 Mississippi State Bulldogs vs #6 Alabama Crimson Tide Best Bets

Mississippi State vs Alabama Prediction: Alabama Wins & Covers, Over 171

Best Bets: Alabama -8 (-110) BetOnline

Backing a team by three possessions in a Top 25 conference battle is never fun, but I think it makes sense with Alabama. They scored 88 on the road against the Bulldogs, a team that is middle of the pack in terms of pace. At home, the Crimson Tide are going to run, run, run, run, run. They will not wait for Mississippi State to keep up, they are going to attack the hoop at all costs.

It took 38 points from the Bulldogs best player just to come up short. On the road, this is a completely different task, and I think the books are counting them out already. Hubbard took 42% of their shots, 60% of their threes, and scored 45% of the team’s points last time out. I do not see that happening again, and without it, I think the Tide could run away with this one.

Defensively, Mississippi State can’t keep their hands to themselves (318th FT Rate), they give up way too many threes (310th 3P Rate), and don’t defend them well (296th 3P%D – 36%). The Alabama Crimson Tide’s whole offense is based around quick threes, or getting to the rim and getting fouled.

I don’t give a piss about nothing but the Tide tomorrow, and I think they get an easy cover for us.

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