Men’s NCAA Tournament Dark horse: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | February 27, 2025

March is chaos, and finding the right longshot team to ride can make all the difference. While Auburn has fully convinced me it is the team of destiny in 2025, there are a few others flying under the radar that deserve attention. These teams have the coaching, defense, and versatility to make a deep run, and at their current odds, they are more than worth a look. Here are two squads that stand out as potential bracket-busters.

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NCAA Tournament Odds

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Auburn: +300

Duke: +350

Houston: +700

Alabama: +1000

Florida: +1000

Tennessee: +1600

Saint John’s: +1600

Michigan State: +2500

Iowa State: +2800

Arizona: +3500

Texas Tech: +3500

Kentucky: +4000

Wisconsin: +4000

Missouri: +4000

Texas A&M: +4500

Tournament Longshot Looks

As a man who has fully convinced himself that Auburn is the team of destiny in 2025, there are still a few longshot teams worth not only taking a look at but also putting something on to win it all or even make the Final Four.

The Fighting Rick Pitinos

St. John’s at 16/1 is a fantastic price for one of the best defenses and most conditioned teams in the country. Since January 1, the Red Storm have had the number one defense on Bart Torvik while maintaining the sixth-fastest tempo. I am typically out on fast teams due to their tendency to burn out late in the year. However, this team is one of the more well-coached programs in the country. Their non-conference schedule against top-50 teams was not the greatest, but that loss to Baylor was a fluke. They are still 14-4 against top-100 teams this season.

Year two of Rick Pitino has been amazing to watch. Even with the Big East being so weak this season, it is clear they are far and away the best team in the conference.

Iowa State

I have always been a major fan of this team. Typically, I would stay away from the Cyclones due to how slow they play, and I am anti-slow tempo teams just as much as I am anti-fast tempo teams. If you are unable to keep up in a shootout and play to your competition, you will not survive in March.

However, the Cyclones have picked up their pace this season, running at a top-105 tempo. They still have an elite defense, ranked ninth in the country. Since January 1, they have maintained a top-10 defense and a top-60 offense.

They have struggled against teams I have minimal respect for, which worries me. Losing to both Arizona and Kansas on the road—two teams that have been massive disappointments—is not ideal. However, against top-100 teams, they are still 14-7. Their most notable win was at Texas Tech in an 85-84 overtime victory back on January 11.

At 28/1, the Cyclones are a great look. They can adapt to any opponent’s pace and still remain efficient.

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