#14 Kentucky vs #25 Ole Miss: NCAA Basketball Odds & Best Bets

Super Tuesday has rolled around and the gauntlet that is the SEC has yet another Top 25 showdown tonight. The 25th ranked Ole Miss Rebels host the #14 Kentucky Wildcats as both teams look to bounce back after losses on Saturday.

The Wildcats lost at home to Arkansas a few days ago in John Calipari’s return to Rupp Arena, and Kentucky has now lost 3 of their last 4 overall. After starting 3-1 in conference play, they now sit at just 4-4 with three more Top 5 matchups awaiting them down the stretch.

As for Ole Miss, the Rebels were defeated by top ranked Auburn at home on Saturday and desperately need a win. Chris Beard’s squad has lost 4 of their last 5 games, including 2 of their last 3 at home. Ole Miss will travel this weekend and early next week, so I assume they’ll bring their A-game tonight at home.

#14 Kentucky vs #25 Ole Miss: Super Tuesday SEC Showdown

Matchup Information – Kentucky vs Ole Miss

• Venue & Location: Sandy & John Black Pavilion (Oxford, MS)
• Date: Tuesday, February 4th, 2025
• Tip Off: 7:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ESPN

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Kentucky +4.5 (-106)
• Ole Miss -4,5 (-114)

Money Line

• Kentucky +175
• Ole Miss -205

Total

• Over 158 (-112)
• Under 158 (-108)

Can Ole Miss Bounce Back at Home?

Ole Miss has a very good defense, but their offense slightly falls off at home. They speed things up offensively, and tonight that might not be in their favor. Kentucky already plays fast and would rather score more points than stop their opponent. They have no problem speeding things up in a shootout, and I certainly think the Wildcats offense would benefit from that style of play.

Kentucky’s 3rd most efficient offense only drops to 15th away from home, and they are still Top 40 in eFG%. They rank Top 50 in pace, shoot plenty of threes, and ironically shoot better as a team on the road. To give you a numbers perspective, the Wildcats shoots 42.7% of their shots from deep and knock down 37.7% overall. On the road, those numbers jump to 45% of shots at a 38.2% clip. Looking at the Rebels perimeter defense, it could be a long night for the home team.

The Rebels rank 325th in 3P Rate defense, giving up shots from downtown on over 44.4% of possessions. Their opponents shoot over 31% which isn’t all that great, but I think Kentucky will have much more success. As a team, the Wildcats have shot 20+ threes in every single game and 25+ in 15/21 contests (71.4%). Tonight I see them living from beyond the arc, and I will be backing a specific Kentucky player to have himself a night.

#14 Kentucky Wildcats vs #25 Ole Miss Rebels Best Bets

Kentucky vs Ole Miss Prediction: Kentucky Wins Outright, Under 157

Best Bets: Jaxson Robinson Over 2.5 3s (-144)

We are laddering this puppy up.

• 1u to win 0.69 on 3+ at (-144)
• 0.5u to win 0.91 on 4+ at (+182)
• 0.2u to win 0.7 on 5+ at (+350)

If he only clears his original number, we lose 0.01u, but I am confident he will at least get us 4 from deep tonight.

Now all we need is for Jaxson Robinson to take us to the top. I spoke on how much Kentucky loves the three and shoots it well, even away from home. And although Ole Miss’ opponent’s don’t shoot the best, they give up tons of threes. The Rebels held Texas to just 5/22 shooting, but Auburn was 14/28 from deep Saturday, and Missouri shot 11/25 the week prior. The point is, as a team, Kentucky will have tons of opportunities from deep.

Now, Robinson has established himself as a secondary three point option when Koby Brea is getting face guarded. He has his 3+ threes in 6 straight games, including 4+ in 4 of those 6 and his L2 as well. He’s averaging 8.3 attempts from deep in his last six and is shooting over 52% from beyond the arc. Let’s look at how often he’s shot from deep in his last few contests.

Jaxson Robinson % of Shots from Downtown Last Few Games

• vs Ark: 6/9 (66.7%)
• @ Tenn: 9/16 (56.3%)
• @ Vandy: 5/8 (62.5%)
• vs Bama: 7/10 (70%)
• vs TAMU: 13/17 (76.5%)
• @ Miss St: 10/12 (83.3%)
• @ UGA: 5/5 (100%)

He shoots over 63% of his shots from beyond the arc, and that average is slightly up over the past few games without Butler. When looking at his home and away splits, Robinson sees more time on the floor and is more involved offensively on the road. He shoots 34% from downtown at Rupp Arena, but that increases to 43.8% on the road. Without Lamont Butler and plenty of attention on Brea, I see Robinson having a sneaky outing from deep.

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