Iowa vs Illinois: NCAA Basketball Odds & Best Bets (2/25)

A classic Big Ten Battle takes place in Champaign as the Illinois Fighting Illini host the Iowa Hawkeyes. Both teams have been less than impressive all season long, but someone has to win this contest on Super Tuesday.

The Hawkeyes are just 6-10 in conference play and need to make some magic happen if they want any shot at making the tournament. It would likely take a Big Ten Tournament win for Fran McCaffery’s squad to get there, which is highly doubtful in my eyes. However that journey would start with a win against Illinois on the road.

The Fighting Illini need to stop their skid. They just got demolished by Duke on Saturday in Madison Square Garden, and lost @ Wisconsin and to Michigan State prior to that, resulting in their current three game losing streak. Illinois is battling to stay in the top half of the Big Ten, but can they do so with a big win at home?

Iowa Hawkeyes vs Illinois Fighting Illini: Big Ten Basketball

Matchup Information – Iowa vs Illinois

• Venue & Location: State Farm Center (Champaign, Illinois)
• Date: Tuesday, February 25th, 2025
• Tip Off: 9:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: FS1

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Iowa +11 (-110)
• Illinois -11 (-110)

Total

• Over 171.5 (-115)
• Under 171.5 (-105)

Illini Host Hawkeyes in Bounce Back Spot

I am looking past Illinois’ loss to Duke for a couple reasons. Number 1, we faded them and cashed on Duke’s spread and TT. Number 2, I think that game illustrated that Duke is a CLEAR national title contender, if they weren’t already. The blowout losses to the Badgers and Sparty aren’t great, but they were certainly expected.

However, this team needs to turn things around, as they are quickly approaching bubble status, and that starts with a win tonight. Not just a win, but a statement win. Obviously with a total set at 171.5, we are going to see some points. Both of these teams are Top 30 in possessions per game, so expect plenty of back and forth. The real difference is how much better Illinois’ defense is, but I’ll save that for a little bit.

Let’s talk offenses.

Iowa is 24th in overall efficiency, drop from 8th to 64th in eFG% on the road, but are Top 10 in taking care of the basketball. Pretty good, not gonna lie. However they struggle to grab offensive rebounds (Bottom 50) or get to the free throw line (Bottom 40). What about Illinois? They rank 14th in overall offensive efficiency and are 13th at grabbing offensive boards. They take way too many threes for my liking, but we’ll talk about why that’s going to be okay below. We are backing Illinois to cover a big number, but don’t be afraid.

Iowa Hawkeyes vs Illinois Fighting Illini Best Bets

Iowa vs Illinois Prediction: Illinois Wins & Covers, Over 171.5

Best Bets: Illinois -11 (-110) BetOnline

This game is going to have tons of points, remember? We have two very efficient offenses that run at blistering speeds. The difference is the defense, and it’s quite significant.

Iowa Hawkeyes Defensive Ranks

• Adj Def Eff: 324th
• eFG%: 364th (DEAD LAST)
• OR Allowed: 338th
• 2P%: 364th (DEAD LAST)
• 3P%: 364th (DEAD LAST)

Get the picture? Illinois’ offense will do whatever they please, and will have tons of second chance points as well.

Illinois Fighting Illini Defensive Ranks

• Adj Def Eff: 12th
• eFG%: 10th
• OR Allowed: 35th
• FT Rate: 24th

They are also 7th in 3P Rate defense and 5th in 2P% defense. If Iowa tries to keep up with shots from downtown, the Illini will be there ready to contest and grab the board. Illinois is 5-2 ATS as a double digit favorite, and I expect plenty of opportunities to cover this number. Despite the fact that these teams are going to each have a million possessions, the Illini are much more capable at getting stops. The clear difference is defense, and I think it truly shows in this matchup.

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