Gonzaga vs San Francisco Basketball Prediction & Picks (3/1): Will the Zags Deny the Dons Once Again?

The Chase Center in San Francisco hosts many impressive offensive displays by the best and brightest in the NBA, but tonight it will host a high-quality college basketball matchup as Gonzaga takes on San Francisco in the West Coast Conference regular season finale for both teams (11:00 pm ET, ESPN).

There is a lot at stake for tonight’s matchup between the Bulldogs (22-8, 13-4 West Coast) and Dons (23-7, 13-4 West Coast). The winner will be the #2 seed in the conference tournament, which will take place from March 6-11 at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas. The top two seeds will have a bye through to the semifinals and therefore need to win only two games to win the automatic bid.

That makes the path slightly less arduous for San Francisco, who needs the automatic bid to reach the NCAA Tournament for just the third time since 1982.

With a NET of 8 entering today, Gonzaga is a near-certainty to be in the March Madness field. But according to leading bracket projections, the Bulldogs are no better than an #8 seed (FOX Sports) and potentially a #9 (ESPN) or #10 (CBS). So, a win tonight, plus a second win over the Dons in the WCC semis and a win over either #1 Saint Mary’s or #4 Santa Clara in the championship game could give their seeding a small but significant boost.

When these two teams met in Spokane on February 13, Gonzaga pulled away in the second half in an 88-77 win following a tied first half. Will we see another high-scoring game tonight?

Gonzaga vs San Francisco Basketball Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, where you can bet on college basketball odds for all of the top matchups on the road to March Madness and the Final Four.

Spread

• Gonzaga -9 (-108)
• San Francisco +9 (-112)

Total

• Over 157 (-110)
• Under 157 (-110)

Moneyline

• Gonzaga -450
• San Francisco +360

Gonzaga vs San Francisco Betting Trends

• Gonzaga is 3-6 SU & ATS as a single digit favorite this season. They have suffered outright losses to Kentucky (who covered and won as a six-point underdog), UConn (+3.5), UCLA (+4.5), Oregon State (+9), and Saint Mary’s twice (+2.5 on the road and +7 at home), with wins over Baylor (-6), Indiana (-9.5), and Santa Clara (-6.5).
• San Francisco is 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS as a single-digit underdog this season. That includes a 65-64 win over Saint Mary’s on February 6, which is the Gaels’ only conference loss this season ahead of their regular season finale against Oregon State.
• Sixteen of Gonzaga’s 30 games this season have had totals of 155 or higher. In those 16 games, the over is 12-4. In their other 14 games, the over is only 5-9.
• San Francisco has yet to have a game with a total of 155 or higher this season, but the under is 5-2 in games in which the total has been 150 or higher.

Gonzaga vs San Francisco Analysis, Prediction, and Picks

Bulldogs vs Dons Analysis

This has certainly not been a vintage season for Gonzaga. For only the fourth time under Mark Few, the Bulldogs will not win at least a share of the WCC regular season title, and they have lost four conference games for the first time since the 1997-98 season, which is the last time that the program missed the NCAA Tournament. Also, depending on how things shake out, they could finish with fewer than 25 wins in a season for the first time since the 2002-03 season.

Still, this is a very talented team, and that was on display in Tuesday’s 95-76 win at Santa Clara.

The Zags did not shoot well from outside, making only 6 of 22 from three, but they made 73.8% (31 of 42) of their two-point shots and 57.8% from the field overall. Four starters scored in double figures, led by Graham Ike’s 24, and Ryan Nembhard, the nation’s leader in assists, dished out 15 dimes, tying a season and career high.

It was Gonzaga’s eighth win in ten games, with both losses coming at the hands of Saint Mary’s, who has been the class of the conference this season.

So, you have to feel pretty about what Gonzaga can do against anyone else in the conference and even what they may be able to do if they face Saint Mary’s for the conference tournament title on March 11. Beating a team three times in one season is not an easy feat.

Bulldogs vs Dons Prediction and Picks

That said, that may apply a bit less as it pertains to Gonzaga and San Francisco, who could meet in the tournament semifinals. That is because there is far less parity between the Zags and the Dons as there is between Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s.

San Francisco has not beaten Gonzaga since a 66-65 win over February 18, 2012, the precursor to a run of 31 consecutive head-to-head losses.

The Dons have certainly competed on numerous occasions, and that includes the earlier matchup. However, time is running out for the streak to be snapped, at least in conference play, with Gonzaga off to the Pac-12 in 2026.

Will it come to an end tonight? History says no, but it would be quite the occasion.

However, each of the last four meetings has at least been close at halftime, and this one should be as well. With that in mind, take the Dons to cover the five-point first half spread.