#3 Duke vs Illinois: NCAA Basketball Odds & Best Bets (2/22)

Needing a break from conference play? Well so did these schools as they meet in New York for some non-conference College Hoops to get us into the spirit before March Madness. What should have probably been a competitive, Top 25 matchup, is now the 3rd ranked Blue Devils of the ACC taking on the Illinois Fighting Illini of the Big Ten as nearly double digit favorites.

Illinois is 9-8 in Big Ten play, but probably haven’t lived up to their expectations this season. They’ve been up and down all of conference play and limp into this game after losing two straight. The Illini still have three tough Big Ten games on their schedule, whereas the Blue Devils are facing their toughest remaining opponent this weekend.

Nobody is stopping Duke in the ACC. Not North Carolina, not Clemson (again), not Louisville or SMU… nobody. This is Duke’s toughest matchup until probably the Sweet 16, so I expect them to treat this game with plenty of passion.

#3 Duke Blue Devils vs Illinois Fighting Illini: Neutral Site Matchup

Matchup Information – Duke vs Illinois

• Venue & Location: Madison Square Garden (New York, NY)
• Date: Saturday, February 22nd, 2025
• Tip Off: 8:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: FOX

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Duke -8.5 (-115)
• Illinois +8.5 (-105)

Total

• Over 156 (-110)
• Under 156 (-110)

Will Illinois Regroup at Madison Square Garden?

Illinois plays extremely fast. They are a Top 16 team in terms of possessions per game, but they have plenty of problems that need solving. For starters, they shoot way too many threes. The Illini rank Top 30 in terms of 3P Rate, shooting from deep over 47% of the time. This wouldn’t be an issue if they shot threes well, but they don’t, ranking 306th in 3P%, shooting just 31% as a team.

Defensively they are sound, but they are Bottom 8 at forcing turnovers, which will give Duke plenty of opportunities to work the ball around and find a good shot without being disturbed. Speeding up good offenses has not helped Illinois in the past, as they allowed 95 to Wisconsin on Tuesday. In prior games, they allowed 79 to Michigan State, 78 to UCLA, 82 to Rutgers and 79 to Ohio State, all recently.

Duke is the best offense this Illinois team has seen since…*checks notes*….*still checking notes*….. Alabama on November 20th? If we are getting technical, the Blue Devils are more efficient. The point is, I don’t think the Illini are capable of slowing down Duke, and I’ll have two bets in the game for it.

#3 Duke Blue Devils vs Illinois Fighting Illini Best Bets

Duke vs Illinois Prediction: Duke Wins & Covers, Over 152.5

Best Bets: Duke -8.5 (-115) BetOnline

I jumped the gun and booked -9.5 so you can already get a better number than I did. However, I am also on Duke TT Over 80.5 (-140). We paid a little bit of juice, but 81 is a very attainable number for this team considering the amount of possessions we will see.

Duke plays slow, but they are incredible offensively. They are 3rd in overall efficiency, 4th in eFG%, 28th in turnover rate, and 50th in offensive rebounds. The Blue Devils are also 45th in 3P Rate and 20th in 3P%, knocking down over 38% of shots from beyond the arc. The only thing they could do better is get to the free throw line more often, however when they get there, they shoot 78% which is 24th in the country.

On the defensive side of things, they are 4th overall, 5th in eFG% and 20th in offensive rebounds allowed and FT Rate defense. I expect Duke to shut down what I see as a bad Illinois basketball team. The Illini defense has been a dumpster fire recently, with two of their worst three defensive outings coming in their past three games. Against Duke, I don’t see much changing, and will be backing the Blue Devils to cover the spread and their team total.

Bonus Bets: Duke TT Over 80.5 (-140)

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