#19 Cincinnati vs #22 Dayton: NCAA Basketball Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (12/20)

Two Ohio Universities meet at a neutral site tonight to settle their beef once and for all! The #19 Cincinnati Bearcats take on the #22 Dayton Flyers in Cincinnati, but not exactly on campus. This game is taking place at the Heritage Bank Center, home of the Cincinnati Cyclones (ECHL). While the game isn’t on campus for either team, it is still within an hour of both colleges, so this should feel like a 50/50 split in the stands.

The Bearcats are 8-1 this season, but find themselves just 1-1 against Top 100 teams. In fact, they’ve only played 3 teams ranked inside of 225 all season long. They handled Georgia Tech on the road, lost to Villanova on the road, and barely took down Xavier at home last Saturday. Now they have their toughest test of the season tonight.

The Flyers are absolutely battle tested compared to this Bearcats team. Not only is Dayton 10-2 this year, but they are 3-2 against Top 100 teams, and 5-2 against teams ranked within 200 on Bart Torvik. They’ve now won 5 straight games, and are looking forward to another tough test on the court this Friday night.

#19 Cincinnati Bearcats vs #22 Dayton Flyers: Ohio Showdown in Cincy

Matchup Information – Cincinnati vs Dayton

• Venue & Location: Heritage Bank Center (Cincinnati, OH)
• Date: Friday, December 20th, 2024
• Tip Off: 8:30pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ESPNU

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Dayton +3.5 (-112)
• Cincinnati -3.5 (-108)

Money Line

• Dayton +140
• Cincinnati -160

Total

• Over 137 (-110)
• Under 137 (-110)

Were Flyers Looking Ahead Mid-Week?

I expected the Flyers to demolish a bad UNLV team on Tuesday. This was not the case at all, as the Flyers barely squeaked away with a one point victory. In my mind, that’s a clear sign that they were focused on the task a few days ahead, taking down an in-state, ranked rival.

Both teams are analytical darlings, with Cincy ranking Top 50 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, while the Flyers are 21st overall offensively. Each team plays a very slow, meticulous style of offense, and are unwilling to sacrifice a bad shot just to get one off quicker. They are patient offensively, working the ball around to get the open look they know they can find.

Both offenses will be tested, as will the defenses, and regardless, we are in for a great ball game. Lucky for all of you, Colby Marchio and I both agree on a play, have it booked, and I guess you could call it one of those coveted “collab” plays from the two of us.

#19 Cincinnati Bearcats vs #22 Dayton Flyers Best Bets

Cincinnati vs Dayton Prediction: Dayton Wins, Under 137

Best Bets: Dayton +3.5 (-112) BetOnline

Colby Marchio: One of the best games on the Friday college basketball slate, the 8-1 Cincinnati Bearcats hosted the 10-2 Dayton Flyers in their hometown, but in a neutral site at Heritage Bank Center. Both teams are riding high, both riding winning streaks. The Bearcats coming off back to back wins, while the Flyers are on a five game winning streak dating back to their loss to Iowa State in Maui. Since that loss, Dayton has taken down two top 20 teams, UConn and most recently Marquette this past Saturday.

The Flyers are one of the most battle tested teams in the country, ranked 68th per Haslametrics. They take on a Bearcats team that sits 247 spots below them at 315th. Cincinnati has not played a soul this season. Their most notable matchups are Georgia Tech, Villanova and Xavier. Aside from those three opponents they have played five teams in the mid-to-high 200s and one team ranked third worst in advanced metrics. On top of having an extremely weak schedule, they have had the pleasure of only having to leave their home gym three times. Haslametrics had Cincinnati at 288th in away-from-home rankings, while Dayton is third.

Flyers Roll Tonight

This should be a game where the Flyers roll, they have had a tough schedule over the last seven days. However, having the opportunity to play a team that has yet to be truly tested should lead to a sluggish Bearcats team.

In five games against top 100 opponents, Dayton has a top ten offense, ranked inside the top 50 in most offense metrics, adjusted offensive efficiency, eFG%, turnover percentage, free throw rate, three and two-point offense. Defensively it is the same story, top 120 defense, while being a brick wall from behind the arc, 54th in three-point defense. Along with being an incredible rebounding team, 65th per Bart Torvik.

It is a spot where we find out who the Bearcats are, but with how the Flyers have been playing on top of their tough schedule. I have to go with the Flyers in this spot.

Nate Hornung: Colby said it all. This is a very tough spot to fade Dayton, I see this game coming down to the final few possessions, and certainly staying within a couple of points either way. While I don’t exactly have the plums to back the Flyers outright, +3.5 should be extremely safe tonight.

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