#4 Auburn vs #12 North Carolina: NCAA Basketball Predictions, Odds & Best Bets

The Maui Invitational brings us incredibly thrilling games every single year. The Memphis Tigers knocked off the two time defending National Champions, and both Auburn and North Carolina overcame huge first half leads to advance to the semifinals. Now these two Top 15 teams meet in Maui with a trip to the championship on the line.

Auburn found themselves down 16 points at halftime after giving up 49 in the first half. They responded with a 50 point second half of their own, taking down the Cyclones of Iowa State by 2 points. They remained undefeated with another Top 5 win on their resume already, with a chance at another ranked win tonight.

The Tar Heels trailed by 18 at half, and even saw that deficit stretched to 21 early in the 2nd. North Carolina battled back, much like did against Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse, and finally took the lead with less than 2 minutes to go on an RJ Davis three. They held on, winning by 2 after scoring nearly 60 in the 2nd half.

Who will bring their A-game tonight in Maui?

#4 Auburn vs #12 North Carolina: Maui Invitational Semifinals

Matchup Information – Auburn vs North Carolina

• Venue & Location: Lahaina Civic Center (Maui, HI)
• Date: Tuesday, November 26th, 2024
• Tip Off: 11:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ESPN

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Auburn -4 (-105)
• North Carolina +4 (-115)

Money Line

• Auburn -170
• North Carolina +150

Total

• Over 167 (-110)
• Under 167 (-110)

Tigers and Tar Heels in the Semifinals

Auburn is 5-0 with a couple of HUGE wins on the schedule. They have 3 wins at home over teams ranked 148th, 150th, and 202nd on Bart Torvik, winning each game by a minimum of 23 points. Then they had a huge 5 point win over then #1 ranked Houston (Bart Torvik) on a neutral site (in the city of Houston), and are coming off a massive comeback win against #5 Iowa State. Now they have a chance to get another huge win against a very good team early in the season.

The Tigers are Top 100 in pace, rank 58th in 3P Rate and shoot 37% from deep (72nd), while also being the 2nd most efficient offense in the league. They’ve scored 78.5 points per game against the 1st and 4th ranked defenses in college basketball, while their own defense is 12th overall and 19th in eFG%.

However they may have their hands full with the Tar Heels. North Carolina is going to speed up this game, as they rank 8th in possessions per game, scoring no less than 87 points in all 5 of their games so far. They are 4th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 5th in taking care of the basketball. They struggle to defend the three, allowing Dayton to go 14/32 from downtown last night. Carolina ranks very well in FT Rate on both sides of the ball, 25th on offense and 40th on defense. They keep their hands to themselves, but aren’t afraid of contact on the offensive end.

I think Carolina covers this number, but I liked +5.5 this morning a lot more than the +4 now. I do think it stays within a couple of possessions, but for this game, I’ll pivot and go another route.

#4 Auburn Tigers vs #12 North Carolina Tar Heels Best Bets

Auburn vs North Carolina Prediction: North Carolina Wins & Covers, Over 167

Best Bets: North Carolina TT Over 80.5 (-130) Bovada

I do lean with Carolina in this matchup, but I’d rather just take them to score.

They’ve cleared this mark in every game this season, speeding up their opponents to their pace, daring them to keep up offensively. Sure, this will be one of the tougher defenses the Tar Heels have seen, but they’ve proven they can score against Kansas (7th AdjD on Bart Torvik) and Dayton (50th).

Pace will be the kicker. The Tar Heels sped up the Flyers last night, a team that ranks 285th in possessions per game. North Carolina shot just 54 field goal attempts last night, their lowest all season. However, they’ve gotten to the free throw line on nearly 60% of possessions over their last 3 contests. They take care of the ball, get to the free throw line where they shoot over 82%, and get up and down the floor to maximize possessions. Against an Auburn team that is fine with running and struggles to keep their opponent off the stripe, I trust the Tar Heels to continue putting the ball in the basket.

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