#11 Auburn vs #4 Houston: NCAA Basketball Predictions, Odds & Best Bets

It’s not so often this early in the College Hoops season that we get a matchup like this in the first week. Not only did we get North Carolina and Kansas last night, but here we get Auburn and Houston, the Top 2 teams analytically in NCAA Basketball. And boy oh boy, I’m sure you’ve heard the storylines at this point, but if you haven’t, buckle up.

Last night the Auburn Tigers were about 45 minutes into their flight to Houston, when the pilot turned the plane around. According to his quote to ATC, they had “basketball players fighting”, which was also described as horseplay and rough housing. There was ripped clothing and blood involved, so they returned to the airport. Later last night, the Tigers caught a different plane to Houston, leaving the two involved players behind.

Both were reserves, freshman Jahki Howard and senior Ja’Heim Hudson, and they will not be on the bench this evening.

The line movement because of this was crazy. Not only has the total moved from 150 all the way down to 141.5, but Houston went from a 2 point favorite, all the way to 5. Should that altercation even come into play when breaking down this matchup? Or is Houston going to roll regardless?

Let’s dive in.

#11 Auburn Tigers vs #4 Houston Cougars: Big Cat Battle in Texas

Matchup Information – Auburn vs Houston

• Venue & Location: Toyota Center (Houston, TX)
• Date: Saturday, November 9th, 2024
• Tip Off: 9:30pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ESPNU

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Auburn +5 (-105)
• Houston -5 (-115)

Money Line

• Auburn +185
• Houston -215

Total

• Over 141.5 (-110)
• Under 141.5 (-110)

Should We Fade the Inflight Fights?

Look. I wasn’t on the plane. I’ve got no clue what the hell happened. What I do know, is “fighting” in a locker room usually isn’t a good thing. It certainly shows a lack of team chemistry, bigger issues at hand, and adds plenty of variables to the task at hand: Taking down the #4 team in the nation.

Both teams are coming off enormous wins at home. Auburn took down Vermont, while Houston beat Jackson State. Both the Tigers and Cougars scored in the 90s, while holding their opponent in the 40s, both winning by 50+ points. But how will they do tonight against a more powerful opponent?

Auburn was home against Vermont and managed to shoot 56% from the the field and over 45% from deep. Over half their shots were from beyond the arc, but they only shot 11 free throws throughout the game. They held the usually sharpshooting Catamounts to less than 26% from the field, and they certainly died by the three this game, going 5/23 from deep. However Houston is a much better defense.

Houston held Jackson State to less than 28% from the field and 17% from deep. The Cougars sole focus will be limiting an Auburn team that loves to hit the deep ball, contesting every perimeter shot, and being sure to grab long rebounds. Kelvin Sampson has had his team ready for this game since it was announced. The style of play that Houston uses forces players to be better, faster, and stronger than their opponent. Houston is a nitty gritty, hard nosed basketball team who isn’t afraid of playing tough defense, followed by a very slow offense that looks for layups and dunks. I am kicking myself for not taking this total at Under 150 when it opened, and instead of taking the 141.5 now which I still endorse, I’ll back the Cougars defense.

#11 Auburn Tigers vs #4 Houston Cougars Best Bets

Auburn vs Houston Prediction: Houston Wins & Covers, Under 141.5

Best Bets: Auburn TT Under 67.5 (-125) BetOnline

Line shop as always, but I don’t see Auburn making it to 70 points (or 68). Year in and year out, Houston is one of the best defenses in the country. They limit good 3 point shooting teams, rebound very well, and scramble to the ball when things get crazy. A lot of the credit goes to Sampson and the way he gets his team to buy in to a certain play style. They compete with the best each season, and I think their defense really shows out tonight against Auburn.

Take the inflight fights out of your mind. Auburn still had travel plans interrupted, arrived several hours later than expected to Houston, and have to face a National Championship caliber team. This isn’t a home game for Houston, as they are playing in the Rockets arena, but I could see that impacting the Tigers shooting, especially early on. If Auburn starts hot, I can certainly see Houston adjusting their defense in the 2nd half, slowing the pace of the game down, and limiting their chances.

The Cougars know Auburn won’t be able to score without the ball, so look for them to really run their sets and milk the clock on offense, followed up with tenacious defense that gets the Tigers out of their comfort zone. Auburn won’t shoot as hot as they did last time out, so there should be plenty of regression and missed shots away from home against a much better defense.

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