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#7 Saint Mary’s vs #2 Alabama: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | March 23, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Saint Mary’s and Alabama clash in a battle of extremes—one of the fastest teams in the country versus one of the slowest. Beyond tempo, it is an elite offense against an elite defense, testing the old adage that defense wins championships. This matchup sets up perfectly for a grind-it-out, low-scoring affair.
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Last Month in CBB: 41-47 (-3.1 Units)
#7 Saint Mary’s vs #2 Alabama Odds
Can Alabama handle Saint Mary’s lockdown defense?
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Spread
Saint Mary’s: +5.5 (-108)
Alabama: -5.5 (-112)
Total
Over: 149.5 (-110)
Under: 149.5 (-110)
Moneyline
Saint Mary’s: +208
Alabama: -248
#7 Saint Mary’s vs #2 Alabama Best Bet
Saint Mary’s vs. Alabama—a game I have had circled for a week.Two completely opposite styles of play clash in the second round of the NCAA tournament. The fastest team in the country faces off against one of the slowest. Whose tempo will dictate the pace? On top of that, a top-five offense takes on a top-five defense. Does defense really win championships? Let us get into why this game is going under.
Saint Mary’s Style
Saint Mary’s has maintained a top-five defense since February 1, excelling in effective field goal percentage defense, rebounding, free throw rate defense, and defending both the inside and the perimeter. Most importantly, they rank 17th in three-point rate defense. The Gaels have held teams under 65 points all season long. Some will argue they have not faced a tough schedule, but holding teams under 60 points per game (No. 1 in the country) away from home all season is impressive. As I mentioned earlier, the Gaels are the third-slowest team in the nation. They thrive on suffocating defense and draining the clock for 40 minutes.
Alabama’s Syle
The closest comparison to a team Alabama has already faced this season is Tennessee. The Volunteers love to play slow with impeccable defense. Alabama played Tennessee in Knoxville on March 1, and that game saw 155 total points. The difference? Tennessee has a much better offense. Saint Mary’s is ranked 57th in offensive efficiency, 238th in three-point percentage, and 308th in three-point rate. On top of that, they are 270th in free throw percentage.
I have zero respect for Alabama’s defense. Despite what the numbers say, they do not play defense. If you have watched them, you know they do not guard anyone. They want to outscore their opponents and fly up and down the court. Their offense is elite, but they have struggled from beyond the arc. Today, they go up against the third-best perimeter defense on the road. I smell trouble for the Crimson Tide.
I have a lot of respect for this Saint Mary’s team. If they want any chance of staying in this game, they must turn it into a slow rock fight. They will not win a shootout. Chew the clock. Play exceptional defense. Game goes under.
Best Bet: Game Under 149.5 (-110) on BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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