Warriors vs Rockets NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (4/30)

Hump day hoops. We’ve got an elimination game in the 2025 NBA playoffs. Steph Curry and crew look to close out round one on the road in Houston. Let’s talk hoops.

Game Information

• Toyota Center Houston, TX
• #2 Houston Rockets host #7 Golden State Warriors
• Previous Matchup: GSW 109-106 April 28th, 2025
• Warriors Lead the Series 3-1

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Baby Jokic might need more time to grow up. 

Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets

The Rocket’s fatal flaw all year was their lack of ability to shoot the basketball. It’s been fascinating to see a young team focus so heavily defensively. However, this series is an indication that offensively they’ll need to grow substantially to truly contend.

Conversely, for Golden State, this series should provide confidence that their contention window is wide open. Despite their youth, taking down the Rockets is an impressive feat, as their defence was elite in the association this year. Going forward Kerr and company likely faced their toughest defensive test until they take on the Thunder. However, they won’t have to play them until the Western Conference Finals.

I know I’m talking as if the team in red is already eliminated but are you willing to bet Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler drop this series?

🌟 INSTANT IMPACT 🌟

Jimmy Butler III since joining the Warriors:

💪 18.6 PPG
💪 5.5 RPG
💪 5.8 APG
💪 1.7 SPG

Golden State is 26-8 when Butler is in the lineup 🔥 pic.twitter.com/p0MYnaAdXe

— NBA (@NBA) April 30, 2025

Jimmy is happy in his new home.

NBA Game Analysis

Jimmy Butler came into last game without a minutes restriction. He played 40 minutes and it was as vintage Jimmy Buckets. He finished 7-12 from the floor for 27 points. Butler additionally facilitated for six assists while recording a block and five rebounds. The Rockets youthful roster simply cannot handle Butler when he’s playing at this level. The Warriors won last game by three despite the fact that they shoot 41.9% from the field as a team.

The Warriors continue to win the turnover battle. This has been key. Houston lacks shooters and playmakers. Golden State was tied for the third best opponent assist-to-turnover ratio in the association this season. Additionally, the Warriors have been limiting the fast break.

The Rockets averaged 16.9 points per game on the break during the regular season. The most they’ve scored in this series is 14. For a team lacking shooting and playmaking the break can act as a great equalizer. If Houston somehow finds a way back into this series then the fast break plays a part. The one game that they won they actually came out on top of the fast break and turnover battle.

Will the Real Jalen Green Please Stand Up?

In Game Two Jalen Green scored 38 points as the home faithful watched on. He hit 8 three pointers while shooting 6 assists and recording three steals. He looked like a second overall pick should look. However, that was just one game.

In the three other games in this series Green has scored in single digits. Ime Udoka benched Green down the stretch of the regular season and last game he only played 25 minutes. The Houston Rockets need the real Jalen Green to stand up.

Fred VanVleet says the only shooting guard in the NBA who might have more upside than Jalen Green is Anthony Edwards

“I don’t know if you can go get another 2 guard with the upside or the talent level. [Anthony Edwards] maybe in Minnesota. I don’t know, does Book have more… pic.twitter.com/4vMcwzpK0A

— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) April 30, 2025

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Key Outlier.Bet Insights

• The over hit in 8 of the Houston Rockets last 12 games as a favourite.
• The Golden State Warriors are 11-5 (68.8%) in their last 16 games vs. top 10 scoring defences. Good or bad defence Steph Curry and the Warriors don’t care.

NBA Best Bet: Game Total o204.0 (-110)

Thanks to Outlier I know that the over hit in 8 of the Houston Rockets last 12 games as the favourite in the game.

Disclaimer: I am cold as ice.

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Like the Analysis? Check out our Outlier.Bet review! 

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