Warriors vs Rockets NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (4/23)

Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler continue their quest to lift Larry. The Golden State Warriors are guests once again Toyota Center to play the Houston Rockets in Round 1 of the 2025 NBA Playoffs. Can Ime Udoka’s squad protect home court tonight?

Let’s talk playoff hoops.

Game Information

• Toyota Center Houston, TX
• #2 Houston Rockets host #7 Golden State Warriors
• Previous Matchup: GSW 95-85 April 20th, 2025
• Warriors Lead the Series 1-0

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Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets

The visitors stole game one in hostile Houston. The Warriors superstar duo has gained rapport very fast and it was on display again. Golden State was overall impressive in both the Play-In and Game One. Their periphery concern going forward would likely be the lack of bench contributions. However, they can deal with that problem when they’re forced to. Right now? They’ve got two legends scoring like they’re in their primes. Golden State was also very good on the other side of the basketball. They held the Rockets to under 40% from the field as a team as well as just 6-29 (20.7%) from beyond the arc.

On the other hand, Houston dominated the paint winning that battle 54-34, but that ended up not mattering. The Rockets couldn’t hit a jump shot or a free throw. Going 11-20 from the line is not going to win you any playoff games. The Rockets even struggled to do things they excel at. The red and black like to run, they have the 7th ranked fast breaking offence in the association, they averaged 16.9 ppg in that respect. Last game? They had four fast break points.

This series is far from over considering how well Houston executed for the 82-game regular season. However, unfortunately for Houston, Steve Kerr and Golden State have seemingly figured out this young team.

PLAYOFF JIMMY INTRODUCES HIMSELF TO GOLDEN STATE!

😤 25 PTS
😤 7 REB
😤 6 AST
😤 5 STL

Left his mark in his Warriors playoff debut as GSW takes Game 1. pic.twitter.com/8c6l558O3N

— NBA (@NBA) April 21, 2025

NBA Game Analysis

Curry, Butler, and defence. Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler have hit a groove as a scoring tandem. Curry has scored 30+ in four of the last 5 basketball games he’s played in. Jimmy Buckets hasn’t shot under 50% from the field since April 4th. The other guys defend, rebound, and shoot open shots — but this team lives and dies with this duo.

The Rockets will come into this one with adjustments for sure but there were some things they did well. Their two big lineup showed promise and they absolutely dominated the glass. They out rebounded their opponents 52-36 overall and 22-6 on the offensive glass. Also, as mentioned, they dominated scoring in the paint. Their foundation is still there. If Houston can keep this up then they can actually create some offence off of this — be it on the break or 2nd chance points.

Most importantly, shooting. Houston won’t even win a game unless someone can get hot from three. They cannot simply rely on defence, rebounding, and second chance points. Golden State is the third best team in the association at defending 2nd chance points. Steve Kerr’s team is good defensively and they have the superior offensive superstars. The outcome of Game Two might be very telling if this series is short or extended.

Houston We Have a Problem…

Where can the boys in red find shooting? It’s a good lesson in life to never talk about problems without talking about potential solutions. So, let us pontificate on the possibility of one of Houston’s shooters finding a groove. Houston has teased extending their 8-man rotation to 10 to include shooters in Aaron Holiday and Jeff Green. However, I believe they need the shooting to come from someone already entrenched in the 8-man rotation.

It has to be one of the former top 3 picks. Either Jalen Green or Jabari Smith Jr. needs to shoot Houston into this series. The talent is there but it is raw. Green has the ability to hit 5-7 threes in a game as he did it numerous times in the regular season. Last game, he has 0-4 from three, and 3-15 overall. He is better than that. However, if he doesn’t course correct the Rockets season will come to a crashing halt.

In Game One, Jabari Smith Jr. played just 25 minutes and was 1-1 from three. Ime Udoka simply needs to give him more run. He’s tall, athletic, and he shot 35.4 % from three this year. That’s not great but it is one of the better marks on the roster. If it’s not one of these two young players then perhaps it could be veterans Dillon Brooks, Fred VanVleet, or one of the aforementioned bench players. Most importantly, they just need to find someone who can cause chaos for Golden State’s defence.

Key Outlier.Bet Insight

• Tari Eason has exceeded 14.5 PRA in 14 of his last 17 games at home. He averages 21.0 PRA in friendly confines. The athletic wing went 0-4 from three in Game One. He’ll need to bounce back if he wants to keep up his positive trends at home. He struggled in April after having his best month of the season. He averaged 14.4 ppg compared to 9.8 ppg from March to April.

NBA Best Bet: Golden State Warriors +3.0 (-105)

There are a lot of ways that the Rockets can get back into this series. They dominated the regular season with intensity night in, night out. However, this is the NBA playoffs. This Warriors team looks locked. Low total. Should be a close game. I’ll take playoff Jimmy with the Chef as underdogs.

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