T’Wolves vs. Warriors NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (5/12)

Still no Stephen Curry, but the 2025 NBA Playoffs continue for the Warriors. Golden State hosts the Minnesota Timberwolves for Game 4. Can Anthony Edwards and company take a 3-1 stranglehold and end this series before The Chef’s return? Let’s talk hoops.

Game Information

• Chase Center – San Francisco, CA
• #6 Minnesota Timberwolves visit #7 Golden State Warriors
• Previous Matchup: MIN 102-97, May 10th, 2025
• Timberwolves lead series at 2-1

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Golden State Warriors

The Minnesota Timberwolves may have only won the game by five points in the end, but they had a few impressive performances. Anthony Edwards was clutch on his way to 36 points. Julius Randle once again played the role of facilitator dishing out 12 dimes while recording a triple double. Rudy Gobert also played well, having led the game in rebounding with 13.

Draymond Green fouled out with 4:38 left in the contest. Green continues to play with an immaturity that is usually found in far younger and less successful players. He needs to be out there as the game ends. It has been more than a decade Warrior fans have been subjected to the stress of seeing Draymond take himself out of games.

There’s a fine line between intensity and fouls.

When you play with passion, grit, and aggression, you’re bound to cross that line every once in a while.

Some cross it more often than others…

Like Draymond Green, who’s fouled out of 13 postseason games 😅 pic.twitter.com/5LR2sD0CDJ

— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) May 12, 2025

NBA Game Analysis

Minnesota played its game last time out and it really showed. They shot 13-34 (38.2%) from beyond the arc while also winning the rebounding battle. Furthermore, Minnesota’s signature kiss of death was on full display. Chris Finch’s team was relentless on second chance opportunities as they always are. They outscored Steve Kerr’s Warriors 26-14 in a game they only won by five. Second chance points continue to heavily factor into Timberwolves games.

Game 3 showed the Warriors path the victory. Johnathon Kuminga and Jimmy Butler are it. They can score enough to keep Golden State competitive. The Warriors had an 11-0 run in the second quarter where only either of them scored. It ended up being the longest run of the entire game.

Some people don’t realize how difficult it is to go from not playing to dropping 18, making your first eight shots, and following that up with 30 off the bench in 36 minutes.

Jonathan Kuminga pulled that off. That’s a helluva feat.

— Bonta Hill (@BontaHill) May 11, 2025

Golden State’s biggest lead was seven while the Timberwolves held a double digit lead at one point. Seven times the game was tied while there were 12 lead changes. In a game where both teams shot well from three, we saw less than 200 points total. Additionally, there were 36 total turnovers in the game, but just 29 points conceded and 12 total fast break points. These two teams are playing elite defense.

Key Outlier.Bet Insights

• Trayce Jackson-Davis has failed to exceed 9.5 PRA in 12 of his last 13 games vs. top 10 defenses for rebounds allowed. He played well in Game 2 that got him the start, then Kerr played him just 11 minutes.
• Jimmy Butler III has failed to exceed 33.5 points & rebounds in 17 of his last 19 games vs. top 10 defenses for points allowed. However, he did go over this line last game.
• Brandin Podziemski has exceeded 1.5 turnovers in six of his last seven games if you like to bet on that sort of thing.
• Donte DiVincenzo has exceeded 8.5 points in 15 of his last 18 games on the road, but he’s missed in two of the last three so be careful.
• Naz Reid has exceeded 1.5 assists in 17 of his last 19 games on the road.

Find all of these lines and more at the best online sportsbooks available in the U.S.

NBA Best Bet: Johnathon Kuminga o22.5 Points & Rebounds (-115)

Went with the hot hand in Jarret Allen and got burned. He had just two points in the epic beatdown the Pacers put on them. Let’s hope we don’t get burned again.

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