Thunder vs Timberwolves NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (2/23)

The West’s number one seed takes on the skidding Minnesota Timberwolves. Oklahoma City plays the visitor in this one against a team playing .500 basketball in their last ten. Can Minnesota protect home court or do the Thunder strike? Let’s talk hoops.

Game Information

• Target Center Minneapolis, MN
• Oklahoma City Thunder (45-10) visit the (31-26) Minnesota Timberwolves
• Previous Matchup: MIN Wins 116-101 February 13th, 2025

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Minnesota Timberwolves

The T’Wolves have amassed 31 wins but 7th in the West is likely lower than they would like to be. They made the Western Conference Finals last year. Then they traded away their franchise cornerstone due to cap difficulties tied to the stringent limitations put on second apron teams. Anthony Edwards is a bonafide superstar, but he’s still young and learning — this franchises best days are likely still to come.

The Oklahoma City Thunder believe they will lift the Larry O’Brian Trophy. Statistical analysis would likely lead you to safely deduce either them or the Cavaliers to win it all. And yet, the books still have the Boston Celtics as the favourites. Shai is a MVP candidate but some pundits would rather it go to Jokic. There is doubt around the association about this teams several facets, fair or not. They are young, and just like the Timberwolves, their best days are yet to come.

Jaren Jackson Jr. is the new favorite to win DPOY, per @BovadaOfficial

Jaren Jackson Jr. -125
Evan Mobley EVEN
Luguentz Dort +1800
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +6000
Dyson Daniels +12500
Jalen Williams +12500
Rudy Gobert +15000 pic.twitter.com/gqeh12W2Hm

— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) February 20, 2025

The Thunder have the best record in the NBA in the last 25 games with 20 wins. Shai is a top 5 candidate for both MVP and DPOY. The latter award just opened up to the field after Victor Wembanyama suffered a season ending diagnosis. Gilgeous-Alexander is definitely aware of this. He wants to be known as an all-time great. He is well on his way in my opinion.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander this season:

31.6 PPG (1st in NBA)
5.4 RPG
6.0 APG
2.0 SPG
1.1 BPG
53/35/90%

Holding guards to 39% FG & 27% 3PT 🔒 pic.twitter.com/B6DPI3yY0T

— StatMamba (@StatMamba) January 17, 2025

NBA Game Analysis

These two teams just played one another before the break. I wrote about that game and how Thunder games on the road tend to go over. For Minnesota, their game plan has to stay the same from last game. Secure second chance points and swing it for as many threes as possible. They hit 5 more threes and beat them on the offensive glass 20-12. Again, it sounds counterintuitive but one way to beat this OKC team is to let it fly and crash the glass like your life depended on it. The Timberwolves took 46 threes last game. Furthermore, the over has hit in 15 of Oklahoma City’s last 20 road games.

Obviously, there is more to it. Finch’s men must also limit turnovers.

Shai & Ant are first and second in points off turnovers. Both teams had just 10 turnovers each last game which is below their averages. Minnesota was able to do this despite OKC’s incredible ability to force turnovers.

OKC has one main concern. They need to limit second chance opportunities if they want revenge. This is the one outlier on their defence. Naz Reid and Rudy Gobert are both some of the best second chance scorers in the association. Naz Reid had four offensive rebounds and 27 points in the last game which Gobert sat out of. Luka Garza came in and secured 6 offensive rebounds and scored 8 points. This is the Thunder’s achilles heal. Gobert is out again. Can Minnesota’s Garza and Reid exploit it again?

They had all their starters in the last game, so expect Mark Daigneault to have all five of them ready to bounce back. Four of the five starters carried negative +/- last game. Isaiah Hartenstein had a plus minus of 0. The Thunder have 15 wins in their last 20 on the road so their loss to the Timberwolves 10 days ago was surprising.

Finally, The Minnesota Timberwolves are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games vs. top 10 scoring defences. They are also 5-5 in their last ten overall. They’ll have to bring it tonight in order to defend home court again.

NBA Best Bet: Naz Reid o2.5 Assists (-120)

After a big game against them last time expect the Thunder to have game planned heavily for Naz. Fortunately, Naz is a talented ball handler for a big and a willing passer off the bounce or for the swing. This feels like a comfy spot for a game that could be a little messy. He had 7 against OKC last matchup. He’s hit this line in 7 of 10 and 5 of 8 games without Rudy Gobert.

Bonus for Peepin’ the Scribbles: I will be seeking out Luka Garza P/R closer to game time!

Thanks for reading!

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