Thunder vs Timberwolves NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (2/13)

The final day of NBA action before the 2025 All-Star Weekend hosted in the San Francisco Bay Area February 14-16. The West’s number one seed heads into Minnesota to take on the seventh seeded Timberwolves. Be weary as players are ready for vacation or being sat for rest. Despite that, I think this could be a fun basketball game.

Game Information

• Target Center Minneapolis, MN
• Oklahoma City Thunder (44-9) visit the (30-25) Minnesota Timberwolves
• Previous Matchup: OKC Win 113-105 December 31st, 2024

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Minnesota Timberwolves

The Thunder have not had their projected rotation healthy for more than a handful of games this year. Despite that, they have cruised to the top of the conference with a fantastic defence and a MVP candidate leading them. They’ll have two All-Stars attending the weekend as well. Hard to imagine this team doesn’t hoist Larry in the future. But then you realize Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and Serge Ibaka all wore orange and blue at the same time. They didn’t win either.

Luka Dončić was just traded. Nothing is promised in the world of sports let alone the NBA.

The Timberwolves know this to be true. They traded a lofty haul for Rudy Gobert and were forced to trade away a franchise cornerstone due salary cap complications. The rollercoaster ride for the young Anthony Edwards continues. From play-in to contender to perhaps back to the play-in. The Superstar has a lot of things to say about the trade:

Anthony Edwards said Dallas created a Monster for the way treated Luka! pic.twitter.com/lb1Sfo0FtD

— Showtime Luka (@showtimeluka) February 5, 2025

NBA Game Analysis

The Oklahoma City Thunder bring a seven game win streak into this one while being 8-2 in their last ten. They’re also 11-3 in their last 14 road games. Simply, this is an impressive team. From coaching staff to the 15th man on the roster. They have the number one ranked scoring defence and the fifth ranked scoring offence. Teams shoot horribly against them then teams cannot contain MVP-candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

The Thunder are the top ranked defence in the following categories:

• Scoring Defence (104.7 points allowed per game)
• Opponent FG% (43.1%)
• Opponent 2-Point % (51.2%)
• Opponent 3-Point % (33.1%)
• Steals (11.1 per game)
• Opponent Assist-to-Turnover Ratio (1.4)
• Opponent Fast Break Points (12.1 points per game)

Shannon Sharpe: “Let us get OKC in the Western Conference Finals. I guarantee it! … If the Lakers get the OKC Thunder in the Western Conference, we are going to the NBA Finals!”

Stephen A. Smith: “Shannon need to be drug tested.” 😂pic.twitter.com/PXFNy1Rb8y

— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) February 11, 2025

The Thunder have several key pieces on the injury report and I suspect a few of them sit. Fortunately for them, their superstar is not listed. The only players that will for sure miss tonight’s contest are Alex Caruso and Ajay Mitchell with all others set to game time decisions.

Minnesota’s injury report all has several players of note. Only Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo are listed as out but the stars are on the report. Both Gobert and Edwards are game time decisions.

Can the Home Team get Hot?

How can Minnesota overcome the West’s number one seed? It sound counterintuitive but they might just have to let it fly. There is no scheme that overcomes this type of defence. Playing at home and turning it into a shootout might be the only plan here. Teams are realizing this. The over has hit in 6 of the last 8 games for OKC on the road. The Thunder are 24th in second chance points allowed, and Minnesota shoots 38% from three (3rd), this means that if they can control the offensive glass they just might have a chance to score enough to win.

With Isaiah Hartenstein on the other side Minnesota then the T’Wolves will need Gobert to play for that plan to materialize. Gobert is 18th in the league at 3.1 second chance points per game.

Unfortunately, to conclude, the Minnesota Timberwolves are 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games vs. top 10 scoring defences in the NBA. OKC has proven time and time again that they can find ways to win no matter who is in the lineup. With SGA playing in this one then it might be a long night in cold Minnesota. However, Minnesota could be ready to protect home court and steal a game from a complacent team way ahead of them in the rankings.

NBA Best Bet: Isaiah Joe o12.5 PRA (-120)

Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso have been ruled out. This bouncy 2-guard will be ready to play. He has gone over this line in 7 of his last 10. Head-to-head only 2 of the last 5. However, this is a situational play. Heading to All-Star Weekend OKC likely wants to avoid injury to their stars. Joe is a fifth year pro and has been 3 years within the organization. This is a good spot for him.

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