Thunder vs. Nuggets | NBA Analysis, Odds, & Best Bets (5/9)

The 2025 NBA Playoffs are officially underway and today we’re here to talk about Game 2 of this second round series between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets.

For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page, here. 

Thunder vs. Nuggets | Game 2 Recap

Final Score: Thunder (146) – Nuggets (106)

The difference between Game 1 and Game 2 for this Nuggets/Thunder series was stark. The Nuggets gave up 149 points to the Thunder in Game 2 and allowed Oklahoma City to shoot 56% from the field and 44% from beyond the arc. The Thunder jumped out to a 24-point 1st quarter lead and never looked back.

Nikola Jokic and the rest of the starters watched the entire 4th quarter from  the bench. Jokic went into the half with 2 personal fouls but somehow picked up 2 quick fouls within the first 3.5 minutes of the 3rd quarter. With Denver already down 35, Jokic stayed out on the floor until he fouled out late in the 3rd.

Best of Five

The Nuggets did their job, went into Oklahoma City and stole 1 of the 2 games. Now with the series tied at 1-1, it’s a best-of-5 and the Nuggets have snatched home court advantage. In Game 2 we saw Shai Gilgeous-Alexander do what he does best, score the basketball.

Shai averaged 32.7 PPG in the regular season and has now scored 31+ in 4 straight games. He played just 30 minutes Game 2 with his team firmly in the lead, scoring 34 points on 11/13 from the field and 11/11 from the stripe. For Denver, their offense never got going. Poor shooting nights from Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter and even Christian Braun really derailed any hope of comeback.

Tonight the Nuggets need to defend home court, look for them to come out fired up.

Thunder vs. Nuggets | Game Information

Matchup Information

• Location: Ball Arena; Denver, Colorado
• Date: Friday, May 9th, 2025
• Tipoff: 10:00 PM EST

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (4) Denver Nuggets| Regular Season Matchups

• Nuggets (140) @ Thunder (127) – 3/10/25
• Nuggets (103) @ Thunder (127) – 3/09/25
• Thunder (122) @ Nuggets (124) – 11/06/24
• Thunder (102) @ Nuggets (87) – 10/24/24

Betting Odds

Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.

Our Best Bets in Game 3 between the Thunder and Nuggets

Aaron Gordon o23.5 P/R (-120 via BetOnline)

Aaron Gordon’s importance to the Denver Nuggets has been on full display through this postseason. Gordon’s already got two game winning shots under his belt, he’s averaging 18.8 PPG, grabbing 6.6 RPG and he’s shooting 48% from the field while he’s doing it. He’s averaging 37.8 MPG in the postseason and it’s his offensive rebounds that have given the Nuggets a huge boost.

Gordon shot 3/12 in Game 2 but he finished with 5 rebounds, all 5 coming on the offensive glass. In the postseason, Gordon’s averaging 6.6 RPG and 3.9 of those boards are coming on the offensive glass. The Nuggets one kryptonite this year has been 2nd chance points and offensive rebounding.

The Thunder currently sit 3rd last among all playoff teams in offensive rebounds allowed and Gordon’s been a menace on the glass. Through the first two games in this series, Gordon’s secured 7 and 5 offensive rebounds. Big key to Denver’s Game 1 win was their prowess on the offensive glass.

Denver finished with 27 2nd chance points in that game and recorded 21 offensive rebounds as a team. If they hope to secure their home floor, they’ll once again need to attack the glass.

Denver Nuggets +5.5 (-110 via BetOnline)

I’m in love with this Nuggets team and this spread feels incredibly short with how Game 2 finished. The Nuggets are 3-1 so far on their home floor, this postseason; averaging almost 13 more PPG at home and 50% from the field and 42% from beyond the arc.

Oklahoma City rolls into Denver and the altitude that comes with it, for just the first time since early November. The two division rivals met 4 times this year, twice in Denver (Oct/Nov) and twice in Oklahoma City (March). The two teams have followed a steady pattern of trading games and tonight feels like it could be more of the same.

Just a few historical trends to help convince you:

1. Teams coming off a loss in a second round series game and playing at home have bounced back well, 23-13 ATS.
2. Second round teams coming off a same series game in which they scored 127+ points are just 6-10 SU and 4-12 ATS (25%) in the follow-up contest.
3. Home teams are 9-3 SU and 7-5 ATS (58.3%) in the last 12 Game 3s.

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