Thunder vs. Nuggets | NBA Analysis, Odds, & Best Bets (5/11)

The 2025 NBA Playoffs are officially underway and today we’re here to talk about Game 3 of this second round series between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets.

For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page, here. 

Thunder vs. Nuggets | Game 3 Recap

Final Score: Nuggets (113) – Thunder (104)

After giving up a postseason  high 149 points in Game 2, the Nuggets strapped in defensively. Denver held Oklahoma City to just 104 points in Game 3, holding the Thunder to just 39% from the field and 26% from beyond the arc. The two teams exchanged leads 15 times, with neither of the two teams holding double digit lead at any point in Game 3. 

For the Thunder, it was Jalen Williams that lit it up. Williams had 32 points on 11/21 from the field and we saw Chet Holmgren pitch in with an 18/16 double double. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander struggled in Game 3, scoring just 18 points on 32% from the field.

For the Nuggets, it was the most complete game their starting-5 have played all season. Four of the Nuggets’ 5-starters scored 20 or more points, with Jamal Murray leading the way with 27 points and 8 assists. Jokic struggled to score the ball, shooting 32% from the field and going 0/10 from 3-point range.

Protect Homecourt

The Nuggets surprised everyone when they walked into this series, fresh off a 7-game series with the Clippers and absolutely punched Oklahoma City in the mouth. Denver’s entered every fourth quarter of this series so far, down at least 3-points; they’ve walked away with a win in 2 of those 3 games.

In Game 3, the Nuggets left us with another lasting postseason memory. Denver was down 3-points with 30 seconds left and Shai proceeded to miss what would’ve been a dagger. Murray rebounds the ball, pushes it down court and who’s wide open in the corner? Aaron Gordon, of course.

Gordon hit his 3rd 3 of the game, arguably the most important 3 of his career and tied the game; sending the game into overtime. Overtime is where Denver took over. Despite 16 of his 32 points coming in the 4th quarter, both Williams and Shai were held scoreless in the overtime period. Both young stars manages just 1 shot attempt in the extra frame, with most of the team looking exhausted.

That Colorado altitude is no joke and with just 38 hours between the end of Game 3 and the start of Game 4, don’t be surprised if this gets a little weird.

Thunder vs. Nuggets | Game Information

Matchup Information

• Location: Ball Arena; Denver, Colorado
• Date: Sunday, May 11th, 2025
• Tipoff: 3:30 PM EST

(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (4) Denver Nuggets| Regular Season Matchups

• Nuggets (140) @ Thunder (127) – 3/10/25
• Nuggets (103) @ Thunder (127) – 3/09/25
• Thunder (122) @ Nuggets (124) – 11/06/24
• Thunder (102) @ Nuggets (87) – 10/24/24

Betting Odds

Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.

Our Best Bets in Game 4 between the Thunder and Nuggets

Aaron Gordon o25.5 PRA (-110 via BetOnline)

If we continue to get this line, we will continue to bet it. Aaron Gordon is averaging 18.8 PPG, grabbing 6.6 RPG and he’s shooting 50% from the field while he’s doing it. He’s averaging 38.4 MPG in the postseason and it’s his offensive rebounds that have given the Nuggets a huge advantage.

Gordon shot 3/12 in Game 2 but he finished with 5 rebounds, all 5 coming on the offensive glass. In the postseason, Gordon’s averaging 6.6 RPG and 3.9 of those boards are coming on the offensive glass. The Thunder’s one kryptonite this year has been 2nd chance points and offensive rebounding.

In Game 3, we saw Gordon 22 points, grab 8 rebounds and dish out 5 assists. His importance has been made clear this postseason, even more so by Jokic calling Gordon his best teammate ever. 

The Thunder currently sit 3rd last among all playoff teams in offensive rebounds allowed and Gordon’s been a menace on the glass. Despite all 8 of his rebounds in the last game coming on the defensive side, Gordon’s secured 7 and 5 offensive rebounds in Games 1 & 2.

Denver Nuggets +7 (-105 via BetOnline)

I keep saying it, I’m in love with this Nuggets team. In Game 3, Denver lost the battle on the offensive glass, in the turnover department, and gave up almost double the fast break points and points in the paint. That kind of game doesn’t usually result in a win, in fact it resulted in a 40-point loss just a few days before.

Denver stole another one on Friday and they’ll need to clean it up if they hope to protect home court. In Game 2 they were beat in all the same departments; offensive rebounding, fast break points, points in the paint, points off turnovers and 2nd chance points.

Big key to Denver’s Game 1 win was their prowess on the offensive glass. Denver finished with 27 2nd chance points in that game and recorded 21 offensive rebounds as a team. The Nuggets are 4-1 so far on their home floor this postseason; averaging almost 13 more PPG at home and 50% from the field and 42% from beyond the arc.

The altitude seemed to bother the young Thunder players and with less than 38 hours to rest, I imagine it might present more problems tonight.

Just a few historical trends to help convince you:

1. Teams have struggled in the second round when coming off of same series losses and playing on the road, having gone just 12-27 SU and 15-24 ATS.
2. Poor 3-point shooting teams don’t necessarily bounce back from those off nights, going 21-27-1 ATS (43.8%) after games in which they shot 25% or less.

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