Thunder vs. Nuggets NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (5/15)

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets try to avoid elimination from the 2025 NBA Playoffs. Conversely, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are trying to punch their ticket to the Conference Finals. Let’s talk hoops, baby!

Game Information

• Ball Arena – Denver, CO
• #1 Oklahoma City Thunder visit #4 Denver Nuggets
• Previous Matchup: OKC 112-105, May 13th, 2025
• OKC leads series 3-2

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Denver Nuggets

It’s looking as if Denver’s last gasp wasn’t enough. The team has been dry heaving for air for weeks. The air has become too thin even for the boys from the Mile High City.

Oklahoma City was efficient in their victory. The lightning fast Thunder boomed their way to 50% shooting from the field and 41% shooting from arc. This entire series it felt like this, rumblings of the Thunder, rumblings that the full force of their storm is coming. It feels as if the sky is about to tear open and we’re about to see it. Also, the Oklahoma City Thunder are undefeated since the following moment:

Shai walking off with a smile after the loss 😅 pic.twitter.com/3L27cKCsQg

— ESPN (@espn) May 10, 2025

NBA Game Analysis

Denver is in trouble here. Their path to victory is grim. They actually led by 11 in the second quarter of last game. If they stave off elimination they’ll need their role players to step up. Simply, they need to hit some shots. The quarter of Aaron Gordon, Michael Port Jr., Russell Westbrook, and Christian Braun shot the ball extremely poorly. Denver has shown that they badly need Gordon’s improved shooting. He was 1/5 from three last game. The Joker needs help but it’s looking like this Circus can’t support its main attraction. 

Denver won the 2nd chance points (15-10) battle, but it wasn’t enough as they shot themselves out of the game, and they got beaten in transition 18-9. Indisputably, the Nuggets have a lot to clean up.

Last game, likely Most Valuable Player winner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played like he deserved the award. He was in vintage form getting to his spots finishing 12-23 (52%) from the floor. Furthermore, he was elite defensively, he also recorded 2 steals and 2 blocks.

There was only two lead changes in the game but it was tied 9 times including 6 times in the fourth. Last game was the kind of game that can break your opponents spirits. Their best player dominated but when the clock ran out your opponent gets the best of you. Oklahoma City held Denver to 28.3% from three and 41% overall. It’s going to take a Herculean effort from one of the other guys for Denver to stay alive.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are up to a 73.5% chance to win the NBA Finals in Basketball Reference’s Playoff Probabilities Report (“based on 10,000 simulations of the remainder of season”).

— Andy Bailey (@AndrewDBailey) May 14, 2025

Is this Something?

Welcome to ‘Is This Something?’ brought to you by no one. Aaron Gordon likes to play basketball on Fridays. Thursdays? Averages 10 points on 42.3% shooting. Saturdays? Averages 12 points on 42.9% shooting. But on Fridays? When the weekend begins Gordon averages 19 points on 58.1% from the field.

He also likes Tuesdays but we can save that for another day. Is this something?

Either way the Nuggets need Gordon’s 2nd chance points, defence, and corner threes.

Most offensive rebounds this postseason:

44 — Aaron Gordon
43 — Mitchell Robinson
32 — Rudy Gobert
30 — Isaiah Hartenstein

The only players with 30+ pic.twitter.com/jNmjJsWYc1

— StatMuse (@statmuse) May 15, 2025

Key Outlier.Bet Insights

• The Oklahoma City Thunder are 17-2 (89.5%) in their last 19 games on the road.
• The Denver Nuggets are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games at home.
• Michael Porter Jr. has exceeded 15.5 PR in 17 of his last 19 games at home but the injury may have finally caught up to MPJ. He was 0-5 from three last game.

NBA Best Bet: Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 (-105)

In conclusion, this young team was historic all season. Their style of play exhausts, SGA feels unguardable at times, and they are very deep. Unfortunately, I think the Nuggets season ends tonight. Interestingly, this NBA Playoffs feels like its all about the young bloods.

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