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Rockets vs. Warriors NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (5/2)
Written by: Sukh Brar
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
nba
Houston Rockets Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+5.0
-110
203
-105o
+183
Golden State Warriors Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-4.0
-110
204
-115u
-170
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See Picks & Statistics For The GameFriday night and we’ve got one NBA basketball game. That would be sad, however, this is an elimination game, and this series has been fantastic. Can the Rockets take flight again or will the Warriors live up to their namesake? We’ll find out. Let’s talk hoops.
Game Information
- Chase Center – San Francisco, California
- #7 Golden State Warriors host #2 Houston Rockets
- Previous Matchup: HOU 131-116 April 28th, 2025
- Warriors Lead the Series 3-2
The Canadian veteran is an X-factor for the Rockets.
Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors
Golden State went up 3-1 in this round one series and an early exit for the young rockets seemed likely. That was until the ball was tipped in Houston for Game Five on Wednesday. The Rockets lifted off roaring to a 40-24 first quarter lead. The game ended 131-116 for the home team whose starters were fantastic. Houston has all of them score in double figures with Jalen Green being the low man with 11. Additionally, he had the lowest plus/minus of any Houston starter and he was a staggering +20 in just 28 minutes.
Just about every single player on Steve Kerr’s roster struggled. He pulled his starters earlier than some fans would have liked too. The injured Johnathon Kuminga was the only player not to see minutes for the Warriors. They ended up bringing the game within 13 points with four minutes left on the clock. A kerfuffle that obviously included Dillon Brooks lead to an ejection of Golden State’s Pat Spencer. Houston used that momentum to put the game away.
Expect this one to be chippy and heated from the get go.
Draymond Green was so proud watching Pat Spencer and Trayce Jackson-Davis go after Alperen Sengun 😭😭
“My guys” pic.twitter.com/kiDEjGfYxL
— Fullcourtpass (@Fullcourtpass) May 1, 2025
Curry played just 23 minutes last game. He will be fresh here.
NBA Game Analysis
Houston put on a masterclass last game. Truly, they could not have played much better both offensively and defensively. They had 16 steals & blocks and they shot 43.3% percent from beyond the arc. Furthermore, they won the turnover battle and shot 55% from the field and 84.4% from the line as a team. However, is this play sustainable?
Houston was dead last in free throw % during the regular season shooting just an anemic 73.8% from the line. They also shot 35.3% (21st) from three and 45.5% from the field. Game Five was likely an exhibition of where Houston’s potential could be in the future. The Houston Rockets are 3-6 against the spread in their last 9 games as the visitors. The home crowd and threat of elimination had this team playing on adrenaline and reckless abandon. I have doubts if the level of offence from Game Five can be replicated back-to-back games.
My scepticism is stoked by several factors. Houston has veterans but overall they are far younger. Curry and Butler should bounce back. However, beyond that, the Rockets shot over 40% from three and still lost the three point battle in the end. They also lost the rebounding and fast break scoring battle. All of this in a game where their largest lead was 31. Peculiar to say the least.
Steve Kerr: “I think at halftime, their effective field goal percentage was 95%. I’ve never seen that in my life. You’re not winning that game.” pic.twitter.com/WRJvHadIme
— ClutchFans (@clutchfans) May 1, 2025
Key Outlier.Bet Insights
- The Golden State Warriors are 13-4 in their last 17 games inside of Chase Center.
- The over hit in 23 of the Houston Rockets last 35 games on the road.
-
Tari Eason has exceeded 11.5 PR in 13 of his last 15 games on the road while averaging 17.3 PR in those games.
-
Dillon Brooks has exceeded 2.5 rebounds in 13/15 games on the road while averaging 4.0 rebounds per game.
-
Draymond Green has exceeded 3.5 personal fouls in 6 straight games at home. He fouls 4.8 personal fouls per game at home.
NBA Best Bet: Golden State Warriors – o106.5 (-115)
The Warriors should bounce back here and they will be playing to close out the series at home. This might be an absolute sweat but I’ll be sitting in front of my TV doing it. Friday night and it’s the only game on. Kerr should have his stars playing back at their full powers. Houston has a very good defence but they still allowed 109.8 points per game in the regular season. This one is from the purpliest of purple plums so tail with caution.
Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler as a duo:
27.7 PPG 17.2 PPG
5.6 APG 6.2 RPG
1.4 SPG 6.1 APG
47/42/91% 1.6 SPG pic.twitter.com/JmME47SITA— StatMuse (@statmuse) April 2, 2025
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