Rockets vs Warriors NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (4/26)

Saturday night NBA basketball between the visiting Houston Rockets and the Golden State Warriors. This series is tied at a game a piece as we shift locations to The Bay. There’s plenty going on making the outcome of this series very intriguing. Let’s talk hoops.

Game Information

• Chase Center San Francisco, CA
• #7 Golden State Warriors host the #2 Houston Rockets
• Previous Matchup: HOU 109-94 April 23rd, 2025
• Series tied at 1-1

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Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors

In Game One the Warriors had the two seed’s number. It looked like a showcase game for the visitors. Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler had the Warriors looking like a legitimate title contender. Then Game Two tipped off and it all went awry. Jimmy Butler got injured and the rest of the game became a tedious exercise for Warriors.

For the Rockets? Their shooters woke up and their pair of young stars put on performances that should help them build confidence not just in this series but for their careers. Houston did well in their response from the first game. The Jimmy Butler injury did change the Warriors demeanour but that does not discount the work done by Ime Udoka’s team.

Sengun controlled the glass and scored very well, Dillon Brooks scored 16 important points, and Jalen Green looked the part of a former second overall pick. The aforementioned guard rained from distance. When the torrential downpour ended Green had splashed in 8 three point shots on 18 attempts. These are the kind of performances the Rockets need if they make noise deep into the playoffs as the second seed should.

Jimmy Butler’s Status

Warriors head coach noted the kind of player Jimmy is and then said he was optimistic about his star’s prospects at playing. “I think there’s a chance he plays,” said Kerr. 

Ultimately, the Warriors can’t be cautious here. They stole a road game as the seventh seed and this veteran squad needs to apply pressure to their young opposition. This series is getting heated and the Warriors need their feisty star to protect their home floor.

NBA Game Analysis

Houston failed to retain home court so now they need to steal one on the road. Jalen Green had one of the best games of his young career. Alperen also continues to be a paint beast cleaning the glass and dishing out of the post. The Rockets needs to cause chaos with their defence and then get out into transition. They won the fast break battle in their game two win. It is key in opening up their shooters for open shots.

Conversely, The Warriors need more offence with or without Jimmy. Houston is simply too dominant defensively. The Warriors have several young players they’ve drafted and now is the time for them to step up. Now that Jimmy Butler has been extended some of these players are likely playing for their futures with the franchise. The Rockets are a little softer to scoring and rebounding from the guard spot. In fact, it might be up to Moses Moody or Johnathon Kuminga.

Houston is very good defensively but they were 18th in points in the paint allowed during the regular season. Golden State’s young athletic players need to apply pressure on the rim as the Rockets lack a true defensive rim protector. From there they need to crash. Kerr and Curry had this team 6th in 2nd chance points at 15.6 points per game. It was a major weapon for them. They’ve had 11 & 12 in the first two games of this series.

Where is Steady Freddy?

Fred VanVleet is the final piece of the puzzle for Houston. He has shot 3-20 (15%) from three in the first two games of the series. He played 82 minutes so there’s no reason to think head coach Ime Udoka goes away from him. Unfortunately, Fred VanVleet’s shooting woes have become prolonged. His 2.5 line he has only exceeded 7 times in his last 20. Head-to-head he’s only hit in 1 of 9.

Furthermore, Golden State ranks number one offensively at opponent three pointers allowed. If Houston wins this series expect Fred to have his say before it’s over. If the Warriors win then it’s likely VanVleet’s struggles play a factor.

However, Freddy is a champion and has shot 40.1% from three for his career. He’s wobbling but he’ll probably steady out. Conclusively, he needs to steady out for Houston to truly be in contention this year.

Key Outlier.Bet Insight

• The over hit in 22 of the Houston Rockets last 33 games on the road. They can’t create offence some nights so they run to open up shooters.
• The Golden State Warriors are 11-4 in their last 15 games at home, however, they are only 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games at home.

NBA Best Bet: Tari Eason o14.5 PRA (-125)

Eason has hit this line in 16 of 20 games and I’m keeping it simple. I wrote about this prop in the last game and Eason hit the line by half. Golden State is 25th to points allowed to the power forward. He’s also hit this in 9 of his last 10 road games.

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