Cavaliers vs. Pacers NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (5/9)

Friday Night basketball with Game Three of the 2025 NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Semis! The pace has been set and Indiana comes home after stealing two on the road. The Cavaliers are hurt and luck seems to be against them. Let’s. Talk. Hoops.

Game Information

• Gainbridge Fieldhouse
• #4 Indiana Pacers visit #1 Cleveland Cavaliers
• Previous Matchup: IND 120-119, May 6th, 2025
• Indiana leads the Series at 2-0

Spicy P is excited! He’s averaging just 14.5 ppg in the series but the Pacers are up 2-0.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers

To say the Cavaliers and Celtics have collapsed completely would be discounting what their opponents have accomplished. Like the Knicks, the Pacers are a relentless basketball team, absolute menacing fourth quarter teams. The storied rivals are seemingly on a collision course. However, the Pacers are only half way there. More basketball needs to be played. Unfortunately, the Cavaliers are dealing with more than failed defensive assignments and missed shots.

De’Andre Hunter, Darius Garland, and Even Mobley all missed last game. They’re currently listed as game time decisions but expected to play. They were participants in shoot around this morning.

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NBA Game Analysis

The Pacers can win this game like they’ve won the rest of them. Run, run run. They’ve won the fast break scoring battle in both games. Gainbridge Fieldhouse is an incredibly hard place to play. Indiana was 29-11 inside of their home gym this year.

The one thing Pacers fans have to worry about is if Cleveland gets hot from three. The Pacers have been beaten badly in the paint in the first two games. Cleveland shot below 30% from three in both games when during the regular season they were good for second in the association. If the Pacers want to remain in the driver’s seat they’ll have to keep Cleveland cold.

The Cavaliers should take solace in the fact that their star is still cooking the opposing defence. Furthermore, for all the chaos that has happened — last game still came down to one possession. Tonight, this team should be angry. They need to steal back home court advantage. You win two and it’s a best-of-three with the final game in your barn.

Cleveland’s path to victory tonight is defence too. During the regular season teams averages 112.4 points per game against them. Not great, not bad, just good for 12th. However, they’ve allowed 120+ back-to-back and the season low Indiana has scored is 114. The Cavs still lost that game too. Furthermore, Kenny Atkinson’s team has allowed Indiana to shoot over 50% in both games in Cleveland.

Defence Wins NBA Championships

Cleveland needs to drag this game into the mud. Do not let the pacers run up and down the court. The Cavs were the higher seed and have the best player in the series overall. Cleveland should win some games even if they lose this series in the end. Cleveland cannot worry about their shots not falling when they were hitting shots all regular season. Instead, focus on what you can control and tighten up defensively.

Indiana was dead last in second chance points in the regular season. If you control the glass you can pile up one and out possessions and manufacture a slow pace.

(Celtics fandom might be creating a bias for another team down 0-2.)

The Cavaliers have nearly coasted to the first seed. Now? Down 0-2 and on the road.

The Spida’

The Cavaliers were heavily shorthanded last game. Adding to their misery was the fact that Ty Jerome went 1/14 and he’s been fantastic this season. You know who always steps up? The Spida. Donovan Mitchell had 48 Points, and 9 assists on 50% shooting, and even that wasn’t enough for the win. This is why Cleveland will need to focus defensively. Indiana has already proven they likely have the higher-powered offence.

Also, Mitchell has struggled greatly from beyond the arc. Despite averaging 40.5 points in the first two games he’s surprisingly just 2-18 (11.1%) beyond the arc.

Donovan Mitchell 25+ Total Points (-325) is the most bet on NBA player prop tonight 🕷️ pic.twitter.com/juHFDKcNXR

— ESPN BET (@ESPNBET) May 9, 2025

Key Outlier.Bet Insights

• The Cleveland Cavaliers are 30-9 (76.9%) in their last 39 games as a favourite.
• The over hit in 6 of the Indiana Pacers last 7 games as an underdog.
• T.J. McConnell has exceeded 12.5 pts + reb + ast in 5 straight games at home.

NBA Best Bet: Evan Mobley o28.5 PRA (-115)

This is a gut instinct. He took a big step forward in his career progression this year. In game one he had 32 PRA. If Cleveland makes any noise then this big man will be needed.

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