Pacers vs Bucks NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (4/29)

The first round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs is quickly coming to an end. Damian Lillard suffered a catastrophic injury last game as the Pacers won. Indiana can now close it out. They have a 3-1 stranglehold on the series. However, Giannis likely does not go quietly. Let’s. Talk. Hoops.

Game Information

• Gainbridge Fieldhouse Indianapolis, IN
• Milwaukee Bucks visit the Indiana Pacers
• Previous Matchup: IND 129-103 April 27th, 2025
• Indiana Leads the Series 3-1

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The Greek Freak likely gets nasty tonight as he tries to avoid elimination.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers

The Bucks simply look as if they do not have enough. With or without Damian Lillard this roster lacks upper echelon talent. They’ve recruited on the fringes. Brook has aged. The guards are raw. Doc Rivers is a questionable coach. Milwaukee will now face questions about Giannis Antetokounmpo’s future with the franchise. The Pacers need to jump all over their opponent and put them out of their misery.

Indiana’s offence has simply been too much for the bucks mediocre defence. Haliburton and the Pacers dished out 36 assists while shooting 60.2% from the field in Game Four. Furthermore, the team from the Hoosier state went 18-for-39 from three. Eight players scored ten or more in the win for the Pacers. This was the first time in franchise history that eight players scored double digits in a playoff game. Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam are All-Star level players but Indiana is also very, very deep.

They have a chance to put a bow on this series on their home floor. Carlisle and company cannot squander the opportunity before them.

Giannis Antetokounmpo in this series:

36 PTS, 12 REB, 2 BLK, 60% FG
37 PTS, 12 REB, 6 AST, 73% FG
34 PTS, 18 REB, 7 AST, 70% FG
28 PTS, 15 REB, 6 AST, 45% FG

What more can one man do 😫 pic.twitter.com/Szj0sOiTzV

— Basketball Forever (@bballforever_) April 28, 2025

NBA Game Analysis

Today’s game will be tough for the visitors. A catastrophic injury to a star destroys the locker room morale of a team. The Bucks already started slow in every game of this series. Damian Lillard’s torn achilles doesn’t just change the Bucks’ trajectory this year. This injury changes everything. Antetokounmpo has been playing out of his mind all season. He has already brought this city a championship. Holiday and Middleton are gone already. This could be the last time the Greek Freak wears a Bucks jersey.

Kevin Porter Jr. could provide a spark. The athletic young guard was a bright spot last game and they’ll need him in Lillard’s absence. He’s averaged 11.3 points per game in the series as well as shooting 46.2% from three on low volume. Moreover, he has a player option at the veteran minimum level for next year. Meaning, this game is a showcase game for Porter Jr.. Maybe if he gets hot then it will open up Milwaukee’s shooters. They were ranked number 1 in the regular season but have fallen off a cliff in these playoffs.

Tyrese Haliburton has been great as the driver of Indiana’s engine. Hali-wagon was close to a triple-double last game. He finished with 17 points, eight boards, and 15 assists. He’s had four straight double-doubles to open the 2025 NBA playoffs. Indiana should deploy that 5th ranked fast break offence and run their opponents off the floor.

To conclude, the Indiana Pacers are 7-0 all-time when up 3-1 in a best-of-seven series.

Game 5 is a GOLD OUT at @GainbridgeFH 🟡

there’s only one place to be in Indy on Tuesday night ➡️ https://t.co/94sHu8Ofk4 pic.twitter.com/OVtk59aiBP

— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) April 28, 2025

Key Outlier.Bet Insights

• The Milwaukee Bucks are 12-6 against the spread in their last 18 games. This was during Dame’s time away dealing with his prior injury. The Bucks are used to playing without Lillard.
• The Indiana Pacers are 15-2 in their last 17 games at home. It is also Gold Out night so the Fieldhouse will be rocking from tip.
• The under hit in 12 of the Indiana Pacers last 18 games at home.

NBA Best Bet: Milwaukee Bucks Under 107.5 Team Total

Trying something different here. Playoff gambling has been stressful for me personally. After the Heat’s showing yesterday I have a feeling the Bucks are ready for this nightmare season to be over. I’m taking their team total under.

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