Pacers vs Bucks NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (4/27)

Sunday NBA Playoff basketball! Giannis and company will continue the hostilities as game four tips off in Milwaukee. Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam will try to lead the fourth seeded Pacers to a bounce back win and a 3-1 stranglehold. Let’s talk hoops!

Game Information

• Fiserv Forum Milwaukee, WI
• Indiana Pacers visit the Milwaukee Bucks
• Previous Matchup: MIL 117-101 April 25th, 2025
• Indiana Leads the Series 2-1

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Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks

The Pacers handled business and went up 2-0 after a pair of home games. Two quick starts left Milwaukee buried early in both contests. It seemed as if the same was about to play out in Game Three as the Pacers were up 10 at half. Then Milwaukee woke up. The Deer was starting to finally be worth fearing.

The Bucks outscored the Pacers 39-18 in the third quarter and they never looked back finishing the game up 16. Gary Trent tied a franchise record owned by Ray Allen for threes in a playoff game with 9 makes on 12 attempts.

Additionally, Andrew Nembhard and Myles Turner’s struggles were too much to overcome. The Pacers efficient offence lost some horsepower last game. They shot just 13-41 (31.7.%) from three. This was the first game of the series Indiana lost the three point battle. Ultimately, this series is far from over.

Greatness from Gary Trent Jr.

37 PTS | 9 3PM | 4 STL | 75% 3FG pic.twitter.com/xjUoInENuF

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) April 26, 2025

NBA Game Analysis

The Pacers offence should bounce back. The Bucks are far from an elite offensive unit and they were a Gary Trent game away from being down 3-0. They Pacers also lost the turnover battle in Game Three. The Bucks are bottom third in both steals and blocks. Furthermore, the Pacers were first in assist-to-turnover ration in the regular season. If they want to win this one then they’ll need their offence to revert back to what it was.

The Bucks need another player to step up. Gary Trent Jr. is not a star and should not be relied to recreate his prior performance nightly. Just like Bobby Portis Jr. couldn’t replicate his Game Two. Milwaukee needs another of the other guys to step up every game. Doc Rivers squad only wins this series with a team effort. Fortunately for them, Portis and Trent have shown it can be done.

Milwaukee just needs to continue to pound the paint with patience and then find its shooters. The Pacers need to rediscover their efficiency, limit turnovers, and play their pace. The anger and intensity of this this series will make both team’s goals difficult. To conclude, this should be a great basketball game on a Sunday.

Pascal Siakam this postseason:

25.7 PPG
7.7 RPG
2.3 APG
2.7 3PM
70.2% TS

Underrated. pic.twitter.com/cm1pqLmzmh

— Real Sports (@realapp_) April 26, 2025

Key Outlier.Bet Insights

• Bennedict Mathurin has exceeded 9.5 points in 13 of his last 15 games with a 16.0 point per game average. The Canadian kid is needed by the Pacers but be weary as he is a game time decision with an abdominal contusion.
• Obi Toppin has exceeded 11.5 PRA in 13 of his last 16 games. He’s averaged 16.4 PRA a game in that stretch. If Mathurin is limited or ruled out then Carlisle may go to the bouncy forward for offence.
• AJ Green has exceeded 11.5 PRA in 4 of his last 5 games. Portis and Trent stepped up so could it be Green next? He’s shooting 45% from three during the series.

NBA Best Bet: Pascal Siakam o21.5 Points (-115)

Spicy P has been very, very good for his team. He signed for max money and he is playing up to his lofty contract. Recently, Pascal has hit this line in 4 of 5 basketball games. Additionally, he’s hit this line in 9 of his last 15 games head-to-head. He has a long history against Giannis and the Bucks dating back to his days North of the border. Could be spicy again on a Sunday as he’s shooting the leather off the basketball this series.

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