Pacers vs Bucks NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (4/25)

We’ve got game three in 2025 NBA playoffs. This series shifts locations as the Indiana Pacers are visitors in Milwaukee to take on the Bucks. The home team faces an uphill battle to get back into this series but step one is a win tonight. Additionally, these two teams hate one another. Should be fun. Let’s talk hoops.

Game Information

• Fiserv Forum Milwaukee, WI
• Indiana Pacers visit the Milwaukee Bucks
• Previous Matchup: IND 123-115 April 22nd, 2025
• Indiana Leads the Series 2-0

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Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks

The first two games played out to the same script. When the action tipped off the Bucks were slow to start. The Pacers took the starring role. By the time credits rolled the Pacers were all smiles. The Bucks looked like they aren’t going to get a happy ending to this series. The home team is down 2-0 with all the pressure on Doc Rivers and the coaching staff. They must find a way to change the narrative or when the page turns on the series they’ll be all but gone.

Through two games Milwaukee’s largest lead in the series is just three points.

The Pacers also won the turnover battle in the first two games as well as hitting more threes. Milwaukee’s defence needs to show up from tip. Giannis and the Bucks cannot afford another slow start. They must get their crowd engaged as soon as they can. Utilizing home court could revitalize their shooters while motivating their defence. Milwaukee will need to win everything on the fringes because the Pacers look like the superior overall roster after two games.

Giannis Antetokounmpo:

“My mindset right now is Game 3. I know the f****** deal man. I just know the deal. I know what I gotta do” 😳

h/t @ohnohedidnt24

pic.twitter.com/nepmG30NGR

— NBA Retweet (@RTNBA) April 23, 2025

NBA Game Analysis

The Milwaukee Bucks are 4-1 in their last 5 games at home. That is why they need a fast start. Their fans are fantastic. Having them involved from the jump is crucial. The Pacers have been letting Giannis have his way on the inside. We could see some Giannis dunks as he tries to get the arena going.

Giannis also needs help offensively. Bobby Portis stepped up big last game going 6-11 from three. Prince and Lopez also supplied support from deep. If Damian Lillard can provide 25 additional points then the Bucks should have enough to compete. To win? They’ll need some defensive playmaking. They’re competing on the boards but they simply aren’t causing disruptions for the Pacers offence.

If Aaron Nesmith didn’t try Brook Lopez at the rim three times then the steals/blocks disparity between these two teams would be much worse. Gary Trent has a steal in both opening games. They’ll need more of that.

The Indiana Pacers are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games on the road. This team has the offence to compete every night. Even on the road. If their shots aren’t falling they will increase the pace and attack the paint. Consequently, the over has hit in six straight road games for these Indiana Pacers. That is why this game has the highest total on the board tonight.

Brook Lopez’s block on Aaron Nesmith was NASTY 😲

He has 4 blocks at halftime in Bucks-Pacers Game 2.pic.twitter.com/9lllD43ugp

— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) April 23, 2025

Key Outlier.Bet Insights

• Kevin Porter Jr. has exceeded 2.5 assists in 8 straight games while averaging 5.2 assists per game. The Bucks like what he brings and they’ll need his playmaking to get shooters open.
• Gary Trent Jr. has exceeded 12.5 pts PRA in 7 of his last 8 games at home. He averages 15.2 PRA at home in that span. They’ll need his defence but they need his offence too.

NBA Best Bet: Andrew Nembhard o19.5 Points, Assists & Rebounds (-110)

I’m backing the Canadian kid here again. He seems to love the spotlight the playoffs brings. He’s hit this line in 7 of his last 10 basketball games head-to-head against the Bucks. He’s played very well in the first two games of the series. The Bucks are the favourites and Nembhard isn’t an elite talent so be careful. However, Nembhard looked like the best player on the Pacers for stretches of their run last year. This year? He’s looked the part several instances over the first two games.

Disclaimer: He’s only hit this line in 7 of his last 20 games overall.

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Bonus for Peepin’ the Scribbles: Jarace Walker o2.5 Rebounds (-115)

Like the Analysis? Check out our Outlier.Bet review! 

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