Nuggets vs Thunder NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (5/7)

Wednesday night in the NBA and we’ve got two great basketball games. Tonight, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tries to regain some of that aura, which he and the Thunder lost when dropping the opening game on home court. Can Jokic and Denver shock the world and put the Nuggets up 2-0? Let’s talk hoops.

Game Information

• Paycom Center – Oklahoma City, OK
• #4 Denver Nuggets visit #1 Oklahoma City Thunder
• Previous Matchup: DEN 121-119, May 5th, 2025
• Denver leads the Series at 1-0

Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Aaron Gordon was drafted fourth overall out of Arizona over a decade ago. That’s the kind of draft position were you become positioned to be a star and a cornerstone for a franchise. He spent seven season there with limited success and his highest point output being 17.6 per game. The Orlando Magic were ready to move one. Then, serendipitously, he was traded to play next to Nikola Jokic. The cuts, the oops, the fast breaks — these two have chemistry that is innate to them. This is a match made in basketball heaven.

Gordon had his fingerprints all over game one. Jokic scored 42 but once again the Arizona product was the X-factor. He hit a three with less than three seconds left making his second game winning shot of these playoffs. Gordon played 39 minutes scoring 22 points and 14 rebounds. He was 3-6 from three and a perfect 5-5 from the line. He played menacing defence as well.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander played to his MVP level in game one but it wasn’t enough. The Canadian had 33 points, 10 rebounds, and 8 dimes. The rest versus rust debate reared its head after the game. Oklahoma City hadn’t played in just over a week after easily sweeping past the Memphis Grizzlies. Oklahoma City led 113-102 with 4:31 remaining and still collapsed. Blowing a ten point lead in the fourth is incredibly troubling. This young team needs to be building good habits under these bright lights.

Last game only had two lead changes. That helps paint the picture of the Thunder’s collapse. However, this team was elite all year. Expect them to come correct tonight.

Just a heads up: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the NBA in points per game without free throws.

Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t lie. pic.twitter.com/kvXZHxaH38

— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) May 6, 2025

NBA Game Analysis

Do that again Denver. Push the pace into transition and crash the glass. Denver actually has room to improve as they shoot 10-32 (31.3%) from three. They shot just 6/21 from above the break threes while going 4/10 in the corners. During the regular season they shot it at 37.6% good for fifth in the association. Denver may actually have another gear they can hit.

Conversely, Oklahoma City should not press the panic button despite the painful loss. When you look at the statistics you come away with the impression that they still played well. They won the turnover battle by a considerable margin. Just 9 turnovers and only 5 points conceded off them. For contrast, Denver had 18 turnovers conceding 23 points. This Thunder defence recorded an impressive 11 blocks and 12 steals.

The Thunder do need to be better from the free throw line though . They shot 20-28 last game. That 71.4% mark is well below their season average. Fortunately, OKC was the best team in the association. During the regular season they were knocking down 81.9% of their free throws. Hit your free throws, kids, it’s the playoffs!

Only 3 teams have come back from down 7+ in the last minute of a playoff game since 1997.

Thunder on May 13, 2014
Pacers on April 29, 2025 (7 days ago)
Pacers on May 6, 2025 (tonight)

— Keerthika Uthayakumar (@keerthikau) May 7, 2025

The Thunder’s Weakness

The Thunder’s weakness was on full display. They struggle to defend 2nd chance points. Meaning, teams shot, miss, rebound, then score. This means put backs and corner threes usually. Denver won the rebounding battle 63-43. During the regular season the Thunder were 24th at defending second chance points allowed 15.0 points per game. They surrendered 27 second chance points in a game they lost by just 2. Conclusively, this will continue to be a big problem for the Thunder defensively in this series.

Denver’s 2nd Chance Point Scorers:

• Nikola Jokic – 10 points
• Aaron Gordon – 6 points
• Christian Braun – 4 points
• Jamal Murray – 3 points
• Michael Porter Jr. – 2 points
• Russell Westbrook – 2 pionts

Key Outlier.Bet Insights

NBA Best Bet: Isaiah Hartenstein o19.5 Points & Rebounds (-120)

Alright, big man. This is why they brought you here. The giant rebound disparity has to be made up somehow. Chet needs to put on weight so it’s gotta be Isaiah right now. He’s hit this line in four straight head-to-head with a median of 24.0. Denver was 22nd in points allowed from the centre spot in the regular season. If the Thunder respond then Hartenstein is part of it.

Place this NBA bet on BetOnline to get 50% Welcome Bonus + 100 FREE SPINS!

Like the Analysis? Check out our Outlier.Bet review! 

Thanks for Reading!

Follow me @JustSukh on X!

Also, get the best odds & all the up to date lines right here at Betting News!

Follow us at Betting News for all of our sports betting content & streams on Twitch every day as well!

Additionally, looking for a great promo for a new sportsbooks? Check out all the various sign-up bonuses & reviews we have for numerous sportsbooks, available everywhere!

Still Here? More NBA Betting Stories

• • NBA Defensive Player of the Year Odds
  • 2024-25 NBA Power Rankings
  • NBA Betting Tips