Nuggets vs Thunder NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (5/5)

Two of the best players on the entire planet face off in Round Two of the 2025 NBA Playoffs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic are both MVP candidates and now only one of them can move on to the Western Conference Finals. Only one of them will have a chance to lift Larry. We’ve got Game One of Round Two in the 2025 NBA playoffs. Let’s. Talk. Hoops.

Game Information

• Paycom Center – Oklahoma City, OK
• #4 Denver Nuggets visit #1 Oklahoma City Thunder
• Previous Matchup: DEN 140-127, March 10th, 2025 – Regular Season
• Series is tied at 0-0

Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

These two franchises split the season series at two games a piece. Denver suffers from such success that a 50 win MVP level season from Jokic and the Nuggets feels like underachieving. The small market Oklahoma City Thunder won 68 regular season games and that somehow is being undervalued around the association. Both these teams are fighting outside perceptions. The home team opens up the series are near double digit favourites. Rightfully, however, the Serbian centre is the great equalizer.

The Thunder cruised to a series sweep over the Memphis Grizzlies. Their leader and star averaged 27.8 points per game as they made the series look very easy. However, the Nuggets are an opponent that has more playoff experience. Mark Daigneault needs to ensure his young squad is focused. The job is not done and what lays before them will not be easy if they truly seek to be in title contention. The playoffs and the regular season are two different beasts. Furthermore, the Grizzlies struggled down the stretch of the regular season and nearly became consumed by headlines and posts on the timeline. Their opponents have had similar tumultuous times and weathered it far better.

Conversely, Denver beat the Clippers in seven hotly contested basketball games. They’ve been scratching and clawing for every game for months. Nikola Jokic said they were a beast awoken and this animal refuses to rest since then. Consequently, one does begin to wonder if the Nuggets have enough to face a team that is deep, talented, and most importantly — rested.

Thunder-Nuggets WCSF.

8 days of rest. 1 day of rest. pic.twitter.com/p3cXDEgQuF

— StatMuse (@statmuse) May 4, 2025

Check out our Championship odds piece!

NBA Game Analysis

This series opens up with a near double-digit spread and there are many reasons for that. Full disclaimer, I am very high on the Oklahoma City team. The Thunder have been outplaying anyone who takes the court with them, and that started in October, and they have not relented since the season’s start. OKC has fielded one of the best defences in the history of the association. Oklahoma City has multiple elite defensive playmakers, several solid stoppers, and no one you can pick on defensively.

I really do believe this team can beat anyone in a seven game series…

Yes, including the Boston Celtics.

Denver’s path to victory obviously starts and ends with Nikola Jokic. There is no real stopper for him. That is undeniable. He averaged a 11.6 rebounds, 10.1 assists, and 24.0 points while shooting 45.2% from three in the opening round.

However, beyond that they need outlier contributions by role players. A different man needs to step up every game. They needed to play fast in Game Seven against the Clippers. They did that. Denver won the fast break battle scoring 24 points in transition. As a result, their best transition scorer, Christian Braun, ended up having his fingerprints all over that game. This is the type of performance the Nuggets need from their role players to compete in this series.

The Thunder’s Weakness

Oklahoma City has one flaw that have proven fatal. It is the reason they have had trouble with teams like the Minnesota Timberwolves. A team ranked first in so many categories ranked just 24th in 2nd chance points allowed. Furthermore, this team allowed a offensive rebound % that was middle of the pack while allowing the 26th ranked opponent free throw rate. It may seem puzzling and counter intuitive but you need to overwhelm this offence.

Conclusively, the one way to beat the Thunder is to shoot, shoot, shoot, and then crash. You’re only hope is overwhelm, exhaust, and run on their defence. When they are set in the half court you’re doomed. Schematically and individually they are too good. You simply have to cause chaos.

In the playoffs, Denver’s best 2nd chance scorer has also been the fifth best in the association. Aaron Gordon is scoring 4.3 second chance points per contest. He’s always been an X-factor for the Nuggets since arriving. That will not change if Denver makes noise in this series.

Key Outlier.Bet Insights

NBA Best Bet: OKC Thunder 1st Quarter Spread -3.5 (-105)

Trying something new here. Recently tried that with the fouls market and failed. Tail with caution.

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Bonus for Peepin’ The Scribbles: Christian Braun o12.5 Points (-120)

He’s hit this line in 6 of 8 head-to-head. He’s from near the area and his style of play is badly needed.

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