Nuggets vs Thunder NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (5/18)

One of the most holy events of all sports will take place on Sunday: Game Seven. Oklahoma City earned the right to have this game in their arena. However, The Nuggets have looked capable in their ability to steal this series. It all ends tonight. Winner moves on and loser goes home. Let’s talk hoops, baby.

Game Information

• Paycom Center – Oklahoma City, OK
• #4 Denver Nuggets visit #1 Oklahoma City Thunder
• Previous Matchup: DEN 119-107, May 15th, 2025
• Series tied at 3-3

Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

This series has been a fun duel between the frontrunners for the NBA’s Most Valuable Player. It has caused an exciting stir in the association that is already benefiting from a fantastic 2025 Playoffs.

In games four and five the Nuggets held leads in the fourth only to see them slip away. They were in a similar situation in Game Six but they tightened up and held on to force Game Seven. Denver’s interim coach wasn’t taking any chances as Jokic played the entire fourth. Denver has to bring a similar attitude here.

Conversely, the Thunder couldn’t break out of their shooting slump. Their attack from distance has left much to be desired. In Game Six they were just 11-40 from distance while also shooting just 62.5% from the line. It is starting to feel like the stage may be too big and the lights too bright for this young Thunder team.

Here’s a quick little recap of how the series has shaken out:

• Game One: DEN 121-119
• Game Two: OKC 149-106
• Game Three: DEN 113-104 (OT)
• Game Four: OKC 92-87
• Game Five: OKC 112-105
• Game Six: DEN 119-107

SPJ 5 days ago on All-Sauce Team:

“Wouldn’t it be dope if the Winners of the Nuggets/Thunder Series also won the MVP?”

Sukh: “Why don’t we have a 4 point line, too? Why don’t we ask Fairies if they want to play as well?”

👀😂 pic.twitter.com/i6R0iUz5Cz

— Betting News (@YourBettingNews) May 16, 2025

NBA Game Analysis

Denvers path to victory has been laid out. Last game, they outscored Oklahoma City 23-9 on 2nd Chance Points. This has been and will continue to be a factor in this series. Denver’s best second effort player in Aaron Gordon has been feasting on theses opportunities as has Nikola Jokic. These types of plays demoralize opponents. Just ask the Boston Celtics who has to deal with both Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson who are both top 4 in 2nd chance points in the postseason.

Denver must also win the rebounding battle again. Not just for 2nd chance points of their own but to limit OKC’s possessions. They need to keep this team in the horrible shooting rhythm that they’ve been. Cleaning the glass ensures the orange and blue don’t get more chances to see the ball go through the hoop and build their confidence. If you like Denver in this game then target some rebounding props. Jokic especially if you think Gordon is held out.

Aaron Gordon in the clutch this postseason:

66.7 FG%
75.0 3P%
100 FT% pic.twitter.com/h8xdiM9ePm

— StatMuse (@statmuse) May 17, 2025

Speaking of confidence, Jalen Williams needs some, and he doesn’t have time for an odyssey of personal journey down a yellow brick road. Williams was 3-13 last game and is shooting just 33.7% from the field in this series. Indisputably, OKC’s path to victory is returning to form of the regular season. They can’t do that if their secondary star has lost it.

Conclusively, Mark Daigneault needs an outlier performance from someone other than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander so they can put up enough offence to win this game and move on. For example, they need something strange like four threes from Chet Holmgren or Alex Caruso. Fortunately, stranger things have happened.

Jalen Williams this series:

2-13 FG
3-16 FG
5-14 FG
5-20 FG pic.twitter.com/ZfmKazvgja

— StatMuse (@statmuse) May 16, 2025

Aaron Gordon’s Hamstring

Gordon was not limited in walk-through on Saturday. You still need to be weary as hamstring injuries are tough but Aaron has been elite in this series. He will be a game time decision.

𝑵𝑬𝑾𝑺: Aaron Gordon went through the Nuggets full walk-through today

He’ll be a game-time decision tomorrow in Game 7 pic.twitter.com/hLg8Kiauok

— DNVR Nuggets (@DNVR_Nuggets) May 17, 2025

Key Outlier.Bet Insights

NBA Best Bet: Game Total 0213.5 (-110)

The over hit in 8 of the Denver Nuggets last 12 games on the road. After missing my last two article plays I’m just going to K.I.S.S. here. OKC should have some positive regression and Denver looks unafraid of the Thunder. I’m betting on points, points, points.

K.I.S.S. = “Keep It Simple, Stupid!”

Game 7s have so many fun elements but both team need their stars to show up. Plain and simple. pic.twitter.com/tK2167bl3j

— Hoops Tonight (@hoopstonite) May 16, 2025

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