Mavericks vs Kings NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (4/16)

Like Luka said. It is time to move on. So, let’s. Anthony Davis and his Dallas Mavericks narrowly made it into the Play-In tournament despite the litany of injuries they faced as the regular season dwindled. The Sacramento Kings also traded their star away and still managed to make it into the tournament. Both franchises have an appetite for winning despite there being more drama than W’s. This will be a hotly contested game with two locker rooms that have endured a lot this NBA season. Let’s talk hoops.

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Game Information

• Golden One Center Sacramento. CA
• Dallas Mavericks (39-43) visit the Sacramento Kings (40-42)
• Previous Matchup: SAC 122-98 March 3rd, 2025

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Dallas Mavericks @ Sacramento Kings

Dallas enters this one as the 10th seed and the visitor. They struggled as the season ended and if not for Kevin Durant’s ankle injury they might have fallen out of the Play-In tournament. The Mavericks had just four wins in their final ten games. They were beaten handily by the Clippers twice, Lakers, and the Grizzlies. What might give the remaining few Mavericks fans hope is two things. Naji Marshall has stepped up and looked the part. Also, The Mavericks are 6-3 with Anthony Davis in the lineup. He is still a gamebreaking talent on both ends.

When teams tightened up the Kings struggled going 5-5 down the stretch including a brutal loss to the tanking Washington Wizards. Then four days later they beat Cavaliers team that deployed their regular rotation. Just like the Mavericks, this team has potential. Lesser locker rooms would have crumpled with all that transpired. Looking at you Phoenix!

Tonight, we are going to see two teams with very good players on both ends. These are All-NBA calibre players. The Play-In tournament was made for a matchup like this. Imagine this with me; LaVine, DeRozan, and Domantas all hitting their stride together. Sabonis would then go back in round 1 to face the team that drafted him from Gonzaga. OKC’s young roster would then face three savvy veterans with nothing to lose and everything to prove. Conversely, it would be a similar situation should the Mavericks make it all the way to the playoffs.

Win two and you’re in. Damn, I love NBA basketball.

NBA Game Analysis

Sacramento is the 19th ranked scoring defence in the association. They are also dead last in opponent 3-point% allowed. They do not get a lot of blocks or steals ranking bottom third in both categories. If the Kings win this game then their stars went crazy. Quietly, Zach LaVine is one of the best shooters in the entire NBA this year. DeMar is still elite in the clutch and Domantas lead the league in rebounding. Furthermore, he hit a career high in threes while shooting 41.7%. This was on extremely low volume but it should be noted.

The Kings only path to victory is to score while cleaning the glass to limit the amount of defensive possessions they’ll have to play.

Fortunately, for Doug Christie’s squad (no relation to Max), they are the tenth ranked scoring offence. Though they do play at only the 19th best Pace Factor. That is to limit the amount of defensive stops they’ll have to make. They will have to be surgical. Which can be done. Dallas is 20th to points allowed but more importantly they are 18th in opponent assist-to-turnover ratio. Elite ball handlers like DeMar and LaVine should have room to operate as Dallas lacks elite defensive playmakers on the perimeter.

Domantas Sabonis will face Lively, Gafford, and Davis. Big talented rebounders and finishers. Dallas is ranked 29th in points allowed in the paint and 26th to 2nd chance points allowed. That may feel like the Lithuanian has a chance to have his way with Dallas. However, be weary as Dallas team statistics don’t provide an accurate example of their team due to their injuries they endured.

The Role Players

We saw it last night with Cole Anthony and historically we’ve seen it with names like Leon Powe. Once the lights get bright some guys just love to step up. There are a few names of note of this ilk in this game.

On the Kings side, Trey Lyles and Keon Ellis. Lyles minutes ballooned in the last month of the season. He can space the floor and play the small ball 5. They have come to rely on the Canadian kid off the bench. His points line is 6.5 on some books and he’s hit that line in 6 straight games. Additionally, Keon Ellis is their best wing defender. He’s recorded a block in five straight home games.

For the Mavericks, does Klay Thompson wake up? I don’t know. The most important role player on the Mavericks could be P.J. Washington. Like Lyles, they rely on his rebounding and shooting. Furthermore, Washington has a good amount of playoff experience and has even had a few feisty playoff moments in his young career. The Kentucky alumni should factor into this one before the clock hits all zeroes.

Check out our Championship odds piece!

NBA Best Bet: Trey Lyles o12.5 Points & Rebounds (-115)

This pick isn’t sexy and neither is Lyles game. Trey was also born in the least sexy place of all time; Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. The Canadian kid has carved out a nice role for himself on this team. He has always been talented as he played at Kentucky and was drafted 12th overall.

Lyles has hit this line in 6 straight contests and that is right when Keegan Murray started to struggle and Lyles minutes skyrocketed. Also, he’s hit this line in 2 of 4 head-to-head matchups with the two misses coming in games he played under 20 minutes.

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