Mavericks vs Grizzlies NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (4/18)

Win or go home. The final day of the SoFi NBA Play-In tournament is tonight. Memphis hosts Dallas for what should be a competitive game. Let’s talk hoops, baby.

Game Information

• FedExForum Memphis, TN
• Dallas Mavericks (39-43) visit the Memphis Grizzlies (48-34)
• Previous Matchup: MEM 132-97 April 13th, 2025

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Dallas Mavericks @ Memphis Grizzlies

The Mavericks enter this one having made the Kings look far inferior. Dallas opened the second quarter on a 20-6 run with Klay Thompson being the driving force. Up over 20 at half and the game was all but over. Jason Kidd and the Mavericks made a statement that their season is far from over. They want to be here.

The Grizzlies couldn’t overcome Jimmy Butler and Stephen Curry. The Warriors looked as intended when they made the blockbuster trade. Now, the Grizzlies face a veteran team that just proved that with their backs against the wall then they are dangerous.

Additionally, Ja Morant was injured and made a late return last game. His status for today is in question as he his listed as a game time decision though he is hopeful he plays.

History of No. 10 seeds in Play-In Tournament:

2024
Hawks: Eliminated
Warriors: Eliminated

2023
Raptors: Eliminated
Pelicans: Eliminated

2022
Hornets: Eliminated
Spurs: Eliminated

2021
Hornets: Eliminated
Spurs: Eliminated

Heat, Mavs would be first to qualify for playoffs.

— Underdog NBA (@UnderdogNBA) April 18, 2025

NBA Game Analysis

Dallas needs a repeat effort from the Sacramento game. They rebounded as a team, shot well from three and most importantly — they protected the paint. They had 8 blocked shots as a team lead by Davis’ three. Beating Memphis means slowing that high powered offence and rim protection is key. Dallas will face an offence that is 2nd in points in the paint and 8th in fast break points per game. The only way to deter that is having shooters second guess themselves with rim protection.

The Mavericks should also have confidence in their offence. Memphis fouls a lot, they can have horrible nights rebounding, they also struggle to get back on defence. Add in the fact that they are soft giving up second chance points and a glimmer of hope appears for Dallas.

Last game, the Grizzlies faced a dynamic duo but let’s not forget they have one of their own. The Memphis backcourt combined for 52 lead by Desmond Bane’s 30. The aforementioned swole but smooth off guard could be one of the most underrated players in the entire association.

Most importantly, at home, Memphis can run teams out of the building. As mentioned, they score in the paint and on the break but they are also first in Pace Factor. They can be relentless when at their best. That shows by their 3rd ranked ability to score 2nd chance points. Dallas is ranked only 26th at opponent 2nd chance points. This could be an X-Factor tonight.

In conclusion, Memphis easily won this season series. The Grizzlies came away victorious in three of four contests. They also came away 36-9 against teams below the .500 mark. This is the home team’s game to lose. However, be weary as Dallas’ numbers as a team can be misleading due to their injuries. They could very well shock the world and become the first 10th seed to make it out of the Play-In Tournament.

Check out our Championship odds piece!

NBA Best Bet: Desmond Bane o33.5 PRA

Bane will have opportunity to operate. Known as a shooter but he is also a reliable playmaker. Furthermore, Dallas is 20th to assists allowed and 29th to rebounds allowed to the shooting guard position. Head-t0-head Bane has actually hit his 33.5 PRA line in 5 of 6 matchups. Two of the last three he flew over this line with 45 and 49 PRA. The lone miss was between those two games. Also, Desmond has gone over 33.5 PRA in 7 of his last 8 games vs. bottom 10 defences for team rebounds allowed. He averages 37.8 PRA against those bad rebounding teams.

The games he does miss his PRA is usually because his assists are lower. However, his potential assists are still there. In a game where they are the favourite I’m expecting Bane to set up his teammates and score for himself too.

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