Kings vs Warriors NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (3/13)

Smaller five game slate for the NBA on a Thursday night. We need to cherish it because before we know it the playoffs will be here and gone. We’ve got Sacramento headed into the Bay Area to take on the red-hot Warriors. Star power on both sides but the Kings are looking for a bounce back spot. What are the chances it’ll be against Steph Curry and company on the road? Let’s talk hoops.

Game Information

• Chase Center San Francisco CA
• Sacramento Kings (33-31) visit the (37-28) Golden State Warriors
• Previous Matchup: GS 132-108 February 21st, 2025

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Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors

The Warriors have won five straight games and have just one loss in their last ten. They’re the sixth seed out West but they’re only 5.0 games back of the second seed with ample time to make a move before the finish line. All signs point to the Warriors continuing to roar after acquiring Jimmy Butler. This old engine added an insane amount of horsepower that revived the beast. Draymond and Butler will inevitably combust. Their response to that will decide if they are contenders or just very, very good.

Want to see the best alley-oops of the year? We got you 🤝 @xfinity || Fastest Connections pic.twitter.com/PloG1xJgrO

— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) March 12, 2025

The Kings faced a Knicks team without their star. No Jalen Brunson, no problem, right? Nope. The Kings were subject to an absolute monsoon season from beyond the arc. The Knicks rained down 22/40 (55%) from three. They also won the fast break battle 26-8. Sacramento was drowned on its home floor 133-104. This is a team full of veterans so they need to play like it and respond here. Hopefully a few days off will help them bounce back after going 10/34 (29%) from three against New York.

Jonas Valančiūnas makes no excuses for the Kings to be blown out at home tonight by the Knicks 133-104 despite playing 3rd game in 4 nights. Called the performance tonight by Sacramento “embarrassing” and needing to learn from the film. pic.twitter.com/4e10FW9GNj

— Sean Cunningham (@SeanCunningham) March 11, 2025

NBA Game Analysis

The Sacramento Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on the road and they might be getting Domantas Sabonis back.

The purple and black win games by scoring. They are elite from the free throw line and are good but not great in several other categories. This gets them 116.6 points per game (T-8th). If they win this game or possibly cover it is because one of their stars had a showcase game. There is a very good avenue for this.

The Warriors are strangely softs in the shooting splits they allow. Particularly from three. The Warriors are 15th in 3-point % allowed which is surprisingly mediocre considering a top ten scoring defence (9th). The Kings always have a puncher’s chance and Golden State’s hands are low.

On the flip side, Golden State’s defence is active. They are a top ten scoring defence by way of their steals (9.0 – T-5th), limiting opponent second chance points (7th), and opponent fast break points (6th). For Steve Kerr, he needs to keep his defence focused, because they could have some fun on offence if they do. Sacramento is 30th in 3-point % allowed. Teams are shooting 37.7 % against them which is insanely scary for a team about to take on the greatest shooter of all time.

Sacramento is also 22nd in both steals and blocks. Doug Christie gets effort out his boys but they simply do not have defensive playmakers. Stephen Curry is averaging 4.8 threes per game and 29.0 points per game in March. He’s taking on the dead last ranked team percentage wise from three. However, Devil’s advocate, he’s only hit his 26.5 points line in 3 of the last 8 head-to-head.

NBA Best Bet: Domantas Sabonis o5.5 Assists (-110)

The Warriors are 5th in assist-to-turnover ratio. They have excellent and active wing defence. Sabonis will be needed heavily to steady the offence. He will be the most talented big man on the floor with no question. Even if he is coming back from injury this is a low enough number.

They say a picture is worth a thousand words…

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