Heat vs. Bulls | NBA Analysis and Best Bets (4/16)

The NBA’s Play-In Tournament is back and with two familiar faces; the Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls.

For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page, here. 

Heat Bulls, live from the United Center in Chicago, Illinois. 

Heat vs. Bulls | Information

Matchup Information

• Location: United Center; Chicago, Illinois
• Date: Tuesday, April 16th, 2025
• Tipoff: 7:10 PM EST

Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls | Regular Season Matchups

• Heat (111) @ Bulls (119) – 4/09/25
• Bulls (114) @ Heat (109) – 3/08/25
• Heat (124) @ Bulls (133) – 2/04/25

Injury Report

Miami Heat

• Nikola Jovic – Questionable
• Alec Burks – Questionable
• Pelle Larson – Questionable

Chicago Bulls

• N/A

Betting Odds

Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.

Heat vs. Bulls | Analysis

Familiar Territory

Year in, year out; it feels like every year we’re talking about the Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls in the NBA’s Play-In Tournament. For the third straight season, both teams have found themselves facing off for one of the final spots in the postseason; both rosters now completely different.

Miami’s managed to walk away with a win in both of the previous matchups, winning last year by 21 points. This year feels different, this year this Bulls team feels special. With Derozan and Lavine now in Sacremento, the Bulls have handed the keys to Coby White and Josh Giddey.

White’s averaging 26.1 PPG over his L20 games, shooting 50.3% from the field and 37.9% from beyond the arc. Giddey’s been a threat to triple/double on any given night, averaging 21.0 PPG, 10.3 RPG, and 9.0 APG over the same time frame.

Since the All-Star Break, the Bulls have won 17 of their 27-games; averaging 121.5 PPG (2nd), 29.6 APG (5th) and 47.2 RPG (3rd). Chicago ranks 10th in net rating since the break and have beaten the Heat 3 times already this season.

Top Dog in South Beach, TBD. 

Since the departure of Jimmy Butler, the Heat lost 21 of their 33 remaining games; sliding all the way to the 10th seed in the Eastern Conference. Miami’s offense has looked anaemic without Butler, averaging just 110.0 PPG and seeing that number dip to below 110 on the road.

Both Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo seem to be the likely candidates to take over as top dog in South Beach. Adebayo’s averaging 20.7 PPG, 9.1 RPG, and 3.9 APG since Jimmy was traded; additionally seeing a significant boost in usage over his L10 games.

Herro’s been thriving as this team’s #1 scoring option, averaging 24.1 PPG, 5.5 APG, and 4.6 RPG; doing it on shooting splits of 48/34/90. Both Herro and Bam have played great, at times; it’s time for them to put it all together if they hope to keep their postseason aspirations alive.

Our Best Bets in the Heat vs. Bulls, April 16th

Josh Giddey o37.5 PRA (-102 via BetOnline)

The Bulls finally bit the bullet and traded Zach Lavine. After letting Demar walk in the off-season, the Bulls completed the tear down by sending Lavine to the Sacremento Kings and handing the team over to the tandem of Coby White & Josh Giddey.

Giddey’s has been on fire and it’s something I can’t ignore. Over his last 20 games, Giddey’s averaging 21.0 PPG, 10.3 RPG, and 9.0 APG; shooting 50% from the field and 47% from beyond the arc. The Aussie’s been a bright spot for this Bulls team, especially in a season where they’ve struggled to find things to cheer for.

Giddey’s cleared this line in 14 of his L20 games, averaging 34.1 MPG and additionally 15.2 potential assists per game and 15.5 rebound chances per game. He’s covered this line in 2 of the 3 matchups with Miami this year, clearing it in both matchups when he’s played 31 or more minutes.

The Bulls’ first matchup with Miami came on the same day the team traded away Lavine, prior to Giddey sliding into the starting lineup, permanently.

Bam Adebayo o19.5 Points (-105 via BetOnline)

Bam Adebayo’s taken it upon himself to help get this Miami Heat team back into the postseason. Over his L20 games, Bam’s averaging 20.6 PPG, 8.6 RPG, and 4.3 APG. He’s shooting 48% from the field and even look comfortable from beyond the arc (47%).

Adebayo’s also seen a significant boost in usage, now sitting at 26% over his L15 games. He’s cleared this line in 5 of his L6 games, averaging 16.3 shot attempts per game and shooting 49% from the field. Against Chicago, Bam’s cleared this line in 4 of his L6 matchups; while only averaging 13 shot attempts per game.

The Bulls rank 22nd in 2nd chance points allowed, 30th in points allowed in the paint and 26th in points allowed to opposing Cs. With their season on the line, look for Bam to once again exploit this matchup.

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